Penn State-Wisconsin predictions: How computer data systems, college football experts, see the game

MADISON, Wisc. — No. 3 Penn State invades Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday when he faces Wisconsin (5-2) in a primetime matchup on NBC. The Nittany Lions are 6.5-point favorites, and have been since the betting lines were reposted back on Sunday. The total sits at 48 points for the 7:30 p.m. kickoff.

Our weekly picks roundup gives you one final, comprehensive look at what data systems and experts believe before kickoff. And, as always, be sure to check your sports book of choice for any line changes and remember to play responsibly!

Computer model picks for Penn State-Wisconsin

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 28-18 win for Penn State. That is a comfortable call for a Lions cover and also the under.

Sportsline sees a 28-16 win for the Lions. That’s a pick for a PSU cover. And, the under wins, but without much breathing room.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a Penn State win and cover by a final of 28-20.

Finally, The Dunkel Index projects a Wisconsin cover. However, it thinks the Nittany Lions win by one. And, it likes the under.

Lions-Badgers picks from a national perspective

Bill Bender of the Sporting News has the Lions winning and covering while the under hits. He projects a 27-14 final score.

“Wisconsin has a chance to lean into Camp Randall Stadium at night against a top-five opponent,” Bender writes. “The Badgers have rolled up 245.3 rushing yards per game through a three-game winning streak, but those teams aren’t Penn State. The Nittany Lions allow just 3.2 yards per carry, and Drew Allar has been over 70% in each of his last four games. UCLA and USC loaded up the box to stop the run – but Allar can beat that with tight end Tyler Warren. As long as the Nittany Lions don’t run into turnover, they will set up another top-five showdown against Ohio State.”

At Bleacher Report, David Kenyon sees it as Bender does. He calls for a 27-13 Lions win.

“Wisconsin is built to frustrate Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, who tends to have a minimal impact opposite solid defenses,” Kenyon writes. “The problem for the Badgers, though, is that Penn State has a dominant unit of its own while QB Braedyn Locke has thrown an interception in all four starts, too. Wisconsin’s margin for error is a razor-thin line.”

Fox Sports commentator Joel Klatt also has Penn State scoring a win but not covering the 6.5-point spread. From On3 reporting:

“I think Penn State wins, but I’m gonna take the points with Wisconsin. It’s a 6.5-point line, I think we can all see a situation where Penn State wins this game 24-21, 27-21, right around there. They escape, maybe they’ve got to comeback, looking towards next weekend in that game against Ohio State,” Klatt said.

For The Associated Press, Eric Olson also calls for a low-scoring Lions win. He sees it Penn State 21, Wisconsin 17.

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-Wisconsin

At PennLive, its four-man picking crew all have Penn State to win. But, only three of them foresee a cover.

“This is a classic trap game, and Camp Randall at night will be a handful,’ Joe Hermitt writes in explaining his PSU 24, Wisconsin 20 pick. “But Wisconsin is too limited on offense to outscore the Lions. The Badgers will come out firing and take an early lead, but the Lions will weather the storm and take control in the fourth quarter.”

Mark Wogenrich of Sports Illustrated has PSU winning by 10. He has it 27-17 in favor of the visitors.

“The Nittany Lions largely have played their best football on the road this season,” Wogenrich write. “They took control of West Virginia in the season-opener and rallied from a 14-point deficit against USC, tying the game with their best drive of the season.

“This team seems at home on the road, a trend that should continue Saturday night in Madison. Skilled offenses have rattled Wisconsin, whose defense has allowed 11 touchdowns in its two losses. Singleton (cool Gatorade ad) cuts loose, and the defensive front rattles Locke in a win.”

Finally, a view from the other side. USA Today’s Badgers Wire are 2-1 in terms of picking PSU to win. Only one of them things they cover. And, as noted, one writer calls for an outright Badgers upset. Ben Kenney explains his prediction as follows:

“While the matchup slants towards the Nittany Lions, mostly due to their top-end ability to both run the football and stop the run, this is the spot for the first signature win of the Luke Fickell era. Keys to the Wisconsin win include QB Braedyn Locke taking care of the football, the Badgers continuing to play mistake-free defense and the Wisconsin defense forcing Penn State QB Drew Allar to win the game with his arm.

“If all of that happens, the Camp Randall atmosphere plays a role and the Badgers get a few good bounces of the football, we’re talking about a program-defining victory.”

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Badgers

Nate Bauer: PSU: 27, Wisconsin: 21
Sean Fitz: PSU: 24, Wisconsin: 14
Thomas Frank Carr: Penn State: 31, Wisconsin: 17
Matt Herb: PSU: 27, Wisconsin: 21
Greg Pickel: PSU: 30, Wisconsin: 10
Ryan Snyder: PSU: 24, Wisconsin: 14