What are the odds of Penn State getting to a bowl game? ESPN FPI update offers latest look at the chances, projected point spreads

Will Penn State finish the 2025 college football season with three consecutive victories? A new Football Power Index is out following Week 11 of the college football season. And, it gives the Lions fair odds to win its final three games while ending a six-game losing streak starting next week.

Interim head coach Terry Smith’s team is now ranked No. 21, which is up one spot from where it was a week ago.

First, for those unfamiliar with it, ESPN explains the FPI as follows:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

The Lions’ long-term outlook is as follows:

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI on Nov. 9:

Regular season record projection: 5.4-6.6 ➡️ 5.2-6.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 6.7 percent ➡️ 42.3 percent

Odds of winning six games: 47.3 percent ➡️ 42.3 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

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Assessing the rest of the 2025 Penn State season

Here are the projected point spreads, according to the FPI, for the Lions’ next three games, if they were played at a neutral site:

Penn State (-14) at Michigan State

Nebraska at Penn State (-4)

Penn State (-12) at Rutgers

Michigan State is, without question, the most winnable game left on the schedule. Penn State-Nebraska should be a bit of a toss up in a game where both teams are without their star starting quarterbacks and thus using backups. The regular season finale between the Scarlet Knights and Nittany Lions could very well simply come down to which team is more motivated by that point in time.

All told, winning is out is doable but far from a guarantee. But, with more efforts like the one on Saturday against Indiana, it is absolutely doable.

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Full FPI top 10 after Week 10:

Ohio State

Indiana

Oregon

Alabama

Notre Dame

Georgia

Texas A&M

Texas

Utah

USC

21 Penn State

Penn State and the FPI: Week by week recap

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI on Nov. 9:

Regular season record projection: 5.6-6.4 ➡️ 5.4-6.6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.2 percent ➡️ 6.7 percent

Odds of winning six games: 55 percent ➡️ 47.3 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI on Oct. 26:

Regular season record projection: 5.7-6.3 ➡️ 5.6-6.4

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.2 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Odds of winning six games: 59.2 percent ➡️ 55 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI on Oct. 19:

Regular season record projection: 6-6 ➡️ 5.7-6.3

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 0.6 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Odds of winning six games: 96.1 percent ➡️ 59.2 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 0.1 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Where things stood after Northwestern?

Regular season record projection: 7.2-4.8 ➡️ 6-6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.0 percent ➡️ 0.6 percent

Odds of winning six games: 96.1 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 1.9 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0.1 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Where did things stand after UCLA?

Regular season record projection: 8.7-3.4 ➡️ 7.2-4.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.5 percent ➡️ 1.0 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 2.3 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 22.6 percent ➡️ 1.9 percent

Chances of making the title game: 2.8 percent ➡️ 0.1 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 1.2 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Where were the Lions before UCLA?

Regular season record projection: 9.3-2.8 ➡️ 8.7-3.4

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.2 percent ➡️ 1.5 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 7.7 percent ➡️ 2.1 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 38.8 percent ➡️ 22.6 percent

Chances of making the title game: 6.6 percent ➡️ 2.8 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 3.1 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Where was Penn State after the bye week and before Oregon?

Here’s a look:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.3-2.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.3 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.2 percent ➡️ 7.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 47.2 percent ➡️ 38.8 percent

Chances of making the title game: 9.6 percent ➡️ 6.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 4.8 percent ➡️ 3.1 percent

Here is how things changed from Week 2 to Week 3:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.4 percent ➡️ 2.3 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.7 percent ➡️ 12.2 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 52.5 percent ➡️ 47.2 percent

Chances of making the title game: 11.5 percent ➡️ 9.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 6.0 percent ➡️ 4.8 percent

And here is how things changed from Week 1 to Week 2, for comparison’s sake:

Regular season record projection: 10.3-2.1 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

Win-out percentage: 5.9 percent ➡️ 2.4 percent

Win the Big Ten percentage: 24.2 percent ➡️ 12.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 58.5 percent ➡️ 52.5 percent

Chances of making the title game: 14 percent ➡️ 11.5 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 7.3 percent ➡️ 6.0 percent