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What is the Penn State-Northwestern point spread? Lions seek elusive first cover, Power 4 win

Greg Pickelby: Greg Pickel10/05/25GregPickel
David Braun
Northwestern head coach David Braun said on Monday that Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall's comments about the jersey controversy "caught him off guard." Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Penn State is set to have an uphappy Homecoming, at least in the leadup to Saturday, when it hosts Northwestern at Beaver Stadium. The Lions could turn those frowns upside down, of course, by coming out with their first cover and Power 4 win of the season over the visiting Wildcats. However, it’s hard to imagine what it would take to do so completely after a 42-37 upset setback at UCLA that derailed the team’s College Football Playoff hopes.

“First of all, got to give UCLA and their coaching staff a ton of credit,” James Franklin said after his team’s stunning loss at the Rose Bowl. “Got to give their quarterback a ton of credit. We obviously had a hard time stopping him all day long, but I think the opening sequence of the game was significant with the touchdown and then the surprise onside [kick] that we talked about all week long, that they were going to take significant risk in this game.

“And that was obviously two really significant drive and play in the game. So from that point on, we were battling. Obviously went in at halftime in a challenging situation, came out and then battled in the second half. But not enough to win the game.”

Speaking of winning games, Penn State has not won one over a Power Four team yet this year. It’s one of 11 with that dishonorable mark, per Reddit. And, as PennLive’s Bob Flounders pointed out via BetIQ, the Lions are one of just three teams that have not covered a point spread yet this season. The others? Sam Houston State and SMU.

Will it change this week?

What is the Penn State-Northwestern point spread

Penn State is a 22.5-point favorite at BetMGM. The betting total over/under is 48.5.

It’s a shocking number considering where these teams were to start the season. The preseason ESPN SP+ rankings would have made the Lions a 30-point or more favorite. Now, they don’t even have to beat the 3-2 Wildcats. They are fresh off a 42-7 win over ULM that included 515 yards of total offense.

“Challenged our football team earlier this week — when you’ve got a team on the ropes, you have to learn how to put them away,” Northwestern coach David Braun said. “[I] was proud of the way our guys learned that valuable lesson today. This is the best football team I’ve been around in terms of preparation.”