What first ESPN SP+ rankings of the year say about the early outlook for Penn State football in 2022
Penn State is a top-20 college football team in 2022.
That news has been known since the way-too-early top-25 polls were released back in January. However, February brings with it that prediction again, this time from a highly-respected statistical model.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his first SP+ projections of the off-season on Wednesday. For those unaware, the model combines a team’s returning production from last season, recent recruiting success (or failures), and recent history. Connelly adds:
“It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.”
With all that out of the way, Penn State checks in at No. 16 in the first SP+ iteration of 2022 with a score of 15.9. That puts James Franklin’s Lions behind only top-ranked Ohio State (30.8) plus Michigan (No. 4, 21.5) and Wisconsin (No. 10, 17.7) in the Big Ten. PSU is also a spot ahead of Michigan State (No. 17, 15.3).
Connelly sounds off on the Big Ten
Here’s what the longtime analyst and college football expert had to say on the Big Ten in February:
“Ohio State ranking in the top 25 in returning production is pretty unheard of — the bluest of bluebloods tend to lose tons of production to the NFL each year — and clinched the Buckeyes’ February top spot. But Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan State are all within reach if Ohio State proves mortal.”
What it says for now about Penn State in 2022
It’s worth making two points here. The first is that this list could change between August and now based on how transfers work out after spring practice, among other things. Second, it’s by no means an end-all, be-all. But, it’s been fairly predictive over the years.
According to the current model rankings, Penn State would likely be a favorite over everyone on its 2022 Big Ten slate but the Buckeyes and Wolverines in the Big Ten (and maybe one other; more on that below). That is not a great surprise, of course, because it tends to be the case in most years.
As for the non-conference slate, Penn State is ranked nine spots and almost three points ahead of Auburn (No. 25 13.2). The Lions travel there in September, of course, and home-field advantage would likely make the Tigers a small favorite. However, despite what the numbers say, the SEC team is dealing with plenty at the moment. Both coordinators have left, as did quarterback Bo Nic, and head coach Bryan Harsin is under investigation by the school. So, we’ll see how that plays out.
Penn State opens its 2022 season at Purdue on Sept. 3. The Boilermakers are No. 27 in Connelly’s rankings with a score of 12.8. They could also be a small favorite with home field advantage favorited in. This space sees that as unlikely at this point in time, however, based on public perception alone. That said, we’ll see. Neither a kickoff time or betting line has been released yet for that matchup.
