Will Penn State even qualify for a bowl game? ESPN FPI update offers new outlook

At the start of the 2025 season, it was reasonable to wonder where Penn State would play after earning their first College Football Playoff bye. At worst, the most likely outcome appeared to be hosting a first-round game for the second season in a row. Instead, at the midway mark of the season, the question staring the program in the face is this: Can it even muster the three additional wins needed to qualify for the kind of bowl game is has not played in since losing in the Outback Bowl to end the 2021 season?

ESPN has put out its new Football Power Index to help answer that question now that Week 7 of the college football season is in the books. Penn State, which tumbled after last week’s loss at UCLA, is back on the move in a negative direction following a loss to Northwestern.

For those unfamiliar with it, ESPN explains the FPI as follows:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Head coach James Franklin’s team is now ranked No. 21, which is down two spots from last week, according to the latest update. As for the Lions’ long-term outlook, it changed as follows:

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI on Oct. 12:

Regular season record projection: 7.2-4.8 ➡️ 6-6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.0 percent ➡️ 0.6 percent

Odds of winning six games: 96.1 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 1.9 percent ➡️ 0.1 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0.1 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

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Assessing the rest of the 2025 Penn State season

Penn State will go to Iowa this week with its backup quarterback, Ethan Grunkemeyer, now in the starting role after Drew Allar suffered a season-ending injury on Saturday against the Wildcats. When you combine that with how lost the defense looks and pair it with a general lack of consistent quality play across the program, it’s fair to wonder if 6-6 is as good as it might get for the Lions this season. They will be a heavy underdog against Ohio State and Indiana. It will likely open as one at Iowa this week. And considering the way things are going, being a potential favorite at Michigan State and Rutgers later this year doesn’t mean much.

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Full FPI top 10 after Week 6:

1 Ohio State

2 Indiana

3 Alabama

4 Notre Dame

5 Oregon

6 Georgia

7 Texas

8 Miami

9 USC

10 Texas Tech

21 Penn State

Penn State and the FPI: Week by week recap

Where did things stand after UCLA?

Regular season record projection: 8.7-3.4 ➡️ 7.2-4.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.5 percent ➡️ 1.0 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 2.3 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 22.6 percent ➡️ 1.9 percent

Chances of making the title game: 2.8 percent ➡️ 0.1 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 1.2 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Where were the Lions before UCLA?

Regular season record projection: 9.3-2.8 ➡️ 8.7-3.4

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.2 percent ➡️ 1.5 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 7.7 percent ➡️ 2.1 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 38.8 percent ➡️ 22.6 percent

Chances of making the title game: 6.6 percent ➡️ 2.8 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 3.1 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Where was Penn State after the bye week and before Oregon?

Here’s a look:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.3-2.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.3 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.2 percent ➡️ 7.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 47.2 percent ➡️ 38.8 percent

Chances of making the title game: 9.6 percent ➡️ 6.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 4.8 percent ➡️ 3.1 percent

Here is how things changed from Week 2 to Week 3:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.4 percent ➡️ 2.3 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.7 percent ➡️ 12.2 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 52.5 percent ➡️ 47.2 percent

Chances of making the title game: 11.5 percent ➡️ 9.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 6.0 percent ➡️ 4.8 percent

And here is how things changed from Week 1 to Week 2, for comparison’s sake:

Regular season record projection: 10.3-2.1 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

Win-out percentage: 5.9 percent ➡️ 2.4 percent

Win the Big Ten percentage: 24.2 percent ➡️ 12.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 58.5 percent ➡️ 52.5 percent

Chances of making the title game: 14 percent ➡️ 11.5 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 7.3 percent ➡️ 6.0 percent