Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Michigan

A look at Saturday’s Purdue-Michigan game from a gambling perspective.

For what feels like the tenth time this season, Purdue once again snatched defeat from the Jaws of victory. What felt like the potential for a 2-0 column, the column ended up in losing all the bets thanks to some questionable decision making, inability to execute, and a non-existent defensive backfield. We may have reached “fade Purdue the rest of the season” territory… again.

Covering The Tracks: Michigan

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00 am on 10/31/25 via BetMGM:

Current spread: Purdue +21 (Opened Purdue +17.5).

Money line: Purdue +900, Michigan -1600

1H Spread: Purdue +11.5, O/U 26.5

Over/Under: 48.5 (Opened 49.5)

Season Records ATS

Purdue: 3-5 ATS, O/U 2-6

Michigan: 3-5 ATS, O/U 4-4

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 26% on Purdue, 7% on over

Money: 18% on Purdue, 63% on over

Executive Summary

Purdue will surely have some motivation questions with no more real winnable games on the schedule. Michigan just beat rival MSU and sets its aspirations high for the rest of the year as a dark horse playoff team. The public has sided with Michigan as expected, but the spread, after jumping to 21.5, has gone back down to 20.5 and now sits at 21. Whichever way you go, it is worth it to buy that hook to get on the other side of the football number 21. The same goes for the total. Purdue will have QB questions still as we are not sure how much Browne versus Singleton we will see. Freshman Bryce Underwood will look to get going against a Purdue defensive backfield that has really struggled. Michigan has not been good ATS after wins, so let’s hope that trend continues.

Trend Analysis for Michigan

· UNLV was 6-1 ATS as an away underdog under Coach Barry Odom.

· UNLV was 3-4 ATS after a loss under Odom.

· Purdue is 1-2 ATS as an away underdog under Odom.

· Purdue is 1-4 ATS after a loss under Odom.

· Michigan is 4-5 ATS as a home favorite under Coach Sherrone Moore.

· Michigan is 4-8 ATS after a win under Moore.

· The over was 2-5 when UNLV was an away underdog under Odom.

· The over was 6-1 after a UNLV loss under Odom.

· The over is 1-2 when Purdue is an away underdog under Odom.

· The over is 2-2 after a Purdue loss under Odom.

· The over is 7-5 when Michigan is a home favorite under Moore.

· The over is 5-4 after a Michigan win under Moore.

Miscellaneous Factors

· 2 Win Season. With the loss to Rutgers, Purdue is now on the verge of a second straight season without a power conference win. The November schedule is brutal, with the only non-ranked opponent being Washington in Seattle. Can Odom keep this team motivated? Last year, Walters could not. Lack of motivation, combined with inferior talent and a questionable scheme oftentimes is a perfect recipe for a blowout. While Purdue kept it close with Rutgers and Minnesota, those are two pretty bad teams… which makes you wonder what that makes Purdue. If this team does not find a way to get motivated for this game, it will be a massacre.

· Odom’s Return to the Big House. This will not be Coach Odom’s first-time coaching in the Big House. UNLV made the cross-country trip to the Big House in 2023 when the Wolverines beat the Rebels 35-7. That Michigan team is obviously very different from now, but Odom should have some familiarity with Moore and vice-versa.

· If you have 2 QBS, you don’t have 1. Coach Odom has stated that Ryan Browne is and will remain the starter, but the Malachi Singleton usage only continues to increase game to game. Obviously, a partial reason for that is the Ryan Browne injury. Singleton offers a more power running game but threw for 2 TDs last week (although the TD to Mockobee was uncovered). It will be interesting to monitor how healthy Browne is and how often Purdue goes to Singleton. The spread moved pretty significantly last week towards Purdue once Browne’s injury news (or lack thereof) was announced, suggesting that the Sportsbooks certainly value Browne over Singleton from a spread standpoint.

· Sparty Letdown. Michigan is fresh off a win last week against cross-state rival Michigan State. While the score was closer than most probably expected, Michigan still won by double digits comfortably. Anytime you beat a rival, it is an emotional, and oftentimes, big, win. Michigan surely expected to win that game, so it is by no means an upset win, but this does leave the door cracked for a potential letdown spot a week after the rivalry win.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers: The spread movement has been weird. The line opened up closer to 17 before shooting up to 21.5, coming down to 20.5, and then holding steady around 21. To me, I read this as sharp bettors loved Michigan at 17.5, then took Purdue with the hook at 21.5, and Michigan again at 20.5. There is certainly more money and bets on Michigan, even at that 21, but I am a bit surprised it is not more one-sided. Purdue has looked horrible, and Michigan is fresh off beating MSU by double digits. 21 may be dead on. The total has a low volume of bets thus far but would suggest that 35-14 is probably about right given the back and forth with 48.5 and 49.5. EDGE: Purdue Spread, Push

Trends: Since the departure of Harbaugh, Michigan has really not been great ATS. Moore’s Michigan teams have been average at best and really have struggled ATS after wins, suggesting that Moore struggles to get his team to refocus after a win, at least relatively. Odom has traditionally been good in these spots with UNLV but has struggled in all trend spots with Purdue this year, and this writer has no reason to believe this will change in the near future. However, Michigan’s struggles in this spot give a slight lean to Purdue spread. The over also gets a slight lean, just because of the slight advantage it has had in Michigan games in similar spots. EDGE: Purdue spread, Over

Situation: Purdue comes in fresh off a horrendous home loss against Rutgers. Michigan, on the other hand, is fresh off a big win over rival MSU and has its sights set on an OSU showdown that could sneak the Wolverines into the College Football Playoff. Purdue’s defensive secondary has looked horrible, and the public play would be to back the Michigan offense to put up points. As a result, the contrarian situational edge lies with Purdue and the under. EDGE: Purdue spread, Under.

Total Analysis: We are at the point where it is probably blind fade Purdue the rest of the year. The public will be siding against them the rest of the way, but we saw this all last year and oftentimes, the public was correct. I legitimately worry about this team’s ability to come out motivated in a season that is now lost with virtually no more wins on the schedule. I am loyal to the contrarian angle, for better or for worse, so the proper play based on that is Purdue, but man is this going to be a tough one to stomach when Michigan jumps out to a 21-0 lead early.

Michigan 35, Purdue 14.

Official Plays: 1 Units Purdue +21.5 (-130), 1 Unit Under 49.5 (-130), .25 Units Michigan to

win by 19-24 (+425). 1 Unit Bryce Underwood over 184.5 passing yards (-115). 1 Unit

McCulley over 34.5 (-115) receiving yards.

UNIT COUNTER YTD: -3.33 Units (does not include bonus bets unless listed in official plays)

Bonus Bets: Malachi Thomas Anytime TD +750, McCulley Anytime TD +190.

BetMGM.

Welcome to the 2025 edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information that Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by BetMGM sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Disclaimer for those who gamble: ensure you manage your bankroll effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams is. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting that the sportsbooks are in the money-making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to Read Them: The ability to read odds provides a gambler with insight into how a sportsbook, also known as “Vegas,” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bets will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds mean that to win $10, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are favorable, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for unfavorable odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneyline odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115, then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 (-4.5 in my example above; obviously, this number would change week to week) or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by five or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats the hypothetical team above by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe fewer than 49 points will be scored and vice versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers who have demonstrated a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbooks use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book usually are -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. To win $10, you need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that would be helpful, please let me know.