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Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Northwestern

by: Tyler Ochs10/17/25
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A look at Saturday’s Purdue-Northwestern game from a gambling perspective.

​Wooooooooooah buddy.  Almost nailed the exact score.  Our  28-21 prediction was a point off from each.  Unfortunately, the over did not hit with the hook buy, however, Minnesota did cover with the hook (Purdue covered without), and we hit Minnesota by 7-12 for over +300 (would have preferred the Purdue win, obviously).  Onward.

Covering The Tracks: Northwestern

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00 am on 10/17/25 via BetMGM:

Current spread: Purdue +3 (Opened Purdue +6.5).

Moneyline: Purdue +120, Northwestern -145

1H Spread: Purdue +2.5, O/U 23.5

Over/Under: 45.5 (Opened 48.5)

Season Records ATS

Purdue: 3-3 ATS, O/U 2-4

Northwestern: 4-2 ATS, O/U 2-4

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 57.5% on Purdue, 29.6% on over

Money: 63.9% on Purdue, 39.1% on over

Trend Analysis for Northwestern

· UNLV was 6-1 ATS as an away underdog under Coach Barry Odom.

· UNLV was 3-4 ATS after a loss under Odom.

· Purdue is 1-1 ATS as an away underdog under Odom.

· Purdue is 1-2 ATS after a loss under Odom.

· Northwestern is 5-4 ATS as a home favorite under Coach David Braun.

· Northwestern is 9-5 ATS after a win under Braun.

· Northwestern is 8-7 ATS with equal rest under Braun.

· The over was 2-5 when UNLV was an away underdog under Odom.

· The over was 6-1 after a UNLV loss under Odom.

· The over is 1-1 when Purdue is an away underdog under Odom.

· The over is 2-1 after a loss under Odom.

· The over is 4-5 when Northwestern is a home favorite under Braun.

· The over is 5-9 after a Northwestern win under Braun.

· The over is 7-8 when Northwestern has equal rest under Braun.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Familiar Faces.  This probably should just become part of the column as its own section each week.  Purdue will see an extremely familiar face Saturday when Yannis Karlaftis lines up for the Northwestern defense.  This is the first time since 2019 that Purdue has not had a Karlaftis on the roster.   

· Frankl(in)y my Dear, I Don’t Give a Damn. This will be discussed in the situational spots below, but this is too significant to not mention here as well.  Northwestern is fresh off a 22-21 win over Penn State.  That in and of itself is shocking to read (NW now has 5 wins all time against PSU).  But the real news, and what has dominated the news cycle, is the firing of James Franklin as a result of the loss.  Now, obviously, the loss to Northwestern alone is not what got Franklin fired, but it was the straw that broke the camel’s back.  Northwestern has had its name in the news as a result.  How will this impact public perception?  On one hand, it is almost a back-handed compliment to Northwestern by suggesting that a loss to that program is so bad it is enough to fire their coach midseason.  On the other, people may start paying attention to Northwestern and realize this team is a scrappy 4-2.  More to come below on the situational spot.

· Bullet, meet foot.  The loss to Minnesota illustrated what we already knew.  The game plan and talent are enough to win, but the penalties and turnovers are not.  For the second straight week, Purdue was the more efficient team en route to a loss.  Purdue led for the entire game before the penalties and turnovers culminated in a pick-6 that would seal Purdue’s fate.  While rather obvious, this seems to be another week where Purdue’s outcome will be dictated by its discipline and ball security.  Can the coaches correct this?

Gambling Analysis

Numbers: Once again, the betting volume is relatively low, which should be zero surprise for a Purdue-NW 3pm kick.  The spread opened at +6.5 and was bet down almost instantly to 4.5 and then 3.5.  The bettors seem to be trusting Purdue despite the mistakes over the past couple weeks.  The same can be said with the total, which was bet down from 48.5 to 46.5 almost immediately.  With 60% + money on Boilers, there is a slight contrarian concern about the Boilers.  On the flip side, a 2-4 team being only 3.5-point underdogs on the road at 4-2 Northwestern is pretty suspicious.  The hook also is concerning, as the 3.5 could be an invitation to bettors to take Purdue, since a 3-point loss would get this done.  I am surprised so many bettors are on the under, but there must be a concern about the offense for NW or it is a compliment to the NW defense.  Either way, contrarian angles would lean NW and the over.  EDGE: Northwestern Spread, Over

Trends: As you can probably see from the above, the trends could not be more helpful.  Northwestern has really been about .500 on spread and the total in these spots.  Odom’s UNLV teams were great as away underdogs, but Purdue is just 1-1 ATS in this spot this year.  Purdue has failed to cover in both games that went over and has covered in 3 out of 4 games that went under.  There is really not an advantage from a trend standpoint in any direction.     EDGE: None

Situation: Purdue comes into this game on a 4-game losing streak, where there is a legitimate argument, they should have won 2 of the 4.  Turnovers, penalties, and dropped passes have ravaged this team’s success, but the ceiling is higher than originally thought as evidenced by the success Purdue has had when not doing any of the aforementioned things.  Purdue’s defense finally looked competent last Saturday and a large portion of that likely can be attributed to the return of Tony Grimes.  The Purdue offense has looked potent, but again, the negatives have outweighed positives as of late.  Northwestern’s offense has not been anything impressive, but the defense has, outside of Oregon, played relatively well.  The recent win over Penn State made headlines, but more so due to the firing of Franklin than Northwestern’s play.  Beating Penn State is always a big win, especially for Northwestern, so there is a come down factor to worry about if you are the Wildcats.  Northwestern is riding a three-game win streak into Saturday and look to get one step closer to bowl eligibility.  Purdue has a situational advantage due to the perception of Northwestern being positive, while Purdue has struggled.  I believe the line has Purdue undervalued in this avenue.  EDGE: Purdue, Over

Total Analysis:  My bias tells me Purdue should win this game.  My brain tells me Purdue probably plays well enough to win, but mistakes cause them another tough loss.  Last week showed that this team can still cover even given those mistakes, but I am concerned how much backing Purdue has from bettor money.  I would expect the defense to slightly regress from last week, and maybe the offense can score more than two touchdowns.  Redzone field goals cost Purdue dearly.  Still sprinkling Purdue ML as a fan. Northwestern 26, Purdue 20  

Official Plays: 1 Unit Northwestern -3 (-105), 1 Unit Over 45.5 (-110), .25 Units Northwestern to win by 1-6 (+375).

UNIT COUNTER YTD: +.22 Units (does not include bonus bets unless listed in official plays)

Bonus Bets: This game is an under the radar game, so there are no player props being offered by BetMGM.

Welcome to the 2025 edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information that Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by BetMGM sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Disclaimer for those who gamble: ensure you manage your bankroll effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams is. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting that the sportsbooks are in the money-making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to Read Them: The ability to read odds provides a gambler with insight into how a sportsbook, also known as “Vegas,” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bets will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds mean that to win $10, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are favorable, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for unfavorable odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneyline odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115, then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 (-4.5 in my example above; obviously, this number would change week to week) or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by five or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats the hypothetical team above by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe fewer than 49 points will be scored and vice versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers who have demonstrated a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbooks use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book usually are -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. To win $10, you need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that would be helpful, please let me know.

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