Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Rutgers

A look at Saturday’s Purdue-Rutgers game from a gambling perspective.

​Well, I can honestly say Purdue getting shutout by Northwestern was nowhere near my bingo card. The over never even had a shot as the Boilers failed to score, but Northwestern did easily cover the -3. Purdue will look to get a win in what is probably the last realistically winnable game on the schedule.

Covering The Tracks: Rutgers

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00 am on 10/24/25 via BetMGM:

Current spread: Purdue +1.5 (Opened Purdue +3.5).

Moneyline: Purdue +105, Rutgers -125

1H Spread: Purdue +0.5, O/U 28.5

Over/Under: 58.5 (Opened 57.5)

Season Records ATS

Purdue: 3-4 ATS, O/U 2-5

Rutgers: 3-4 ATS, O/U 6-1

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 26% on Purdue, 27% on over

Money: 18% on Purdue, 41% on over

Executive Summary

Not a lot to go off of for this game. There is not a real strong trend analysis pointing to any angle. Rutgers’ games have almost all gone over this year. Both Purdue and Rutgers came off ugly losses last week, but for different reasons. The Boiler offense looked stagnant in the red zone, but did show some signs of life and an ability to move the ball. Rutgers defense could not stop Oregon at all and the Ducks went on to put up a 60-burger. The public seems to be backing Rutgers and the under. I am surprised by the under, but not the Rutgers backing. These teams both played Minnesota to a one possession game and with the Homecoming crowd in support, I expect a Boiler win in what is their most complete game against a P4 team this season.

Trend Analysis for Rutgers

· UNLV was 1-2 ATS as a home underdog under Coach Barry Odom.

· UNLV was 3-4 ATS after a loss under Odom.

· Purdue is 1-1 ATS as a home underdog under Odom.

· Purdue is 1-3 ATS after a loss under Odom.

· Rutgers is 3-2 ATS as an away favorite under Coach Greg Schiano.

· Rutgers is 14-18-1 ATS after a loss under Schiano.

· The over was 2-1 when UNLV was a home underdog under Odom.

· The over was 6-1 after a UNLV loss under Odom.

· The over is 1-1 when Purdue is a home underdog under Odom.

· The over is 2-2 after a loss under Odom.

· The over is 1-4 when Rutgers is an away favorite under Schiano.

· The over is 20-13 after a Rutgers loss under Schiano.

Miscellaneous Factors

· QB1. The biggest news out of the Northwestern game is of course the injury to Ryan Browne. A shoulder injury sidelined Browne and led to Malachi Singleton running the show for the Purdue offense the rest of the game. Singleton will now have had a week of practice as he likely heads into the game as the starter. A run first QB, how will the books handicap him? Clearly, the Sportsbooks still believe Purdue has a shot given the spread.

· The Locker Room. One of the biggest concerns in handicapping any sport is that theoretical moment when a coach “loses the locker room”. In the modern landscape of college football, where pay-to-play exists, the locker room issue becomes more prevalent. Purdue is on a 5-game losing streak, and a loss to Rutgers would all but end any already miniscule chance to make a bowl. The motivation and effort certainly seemed to be lacking in Evanston on Saturday. Will that become the new norm? It certainly became the standard last year. Odom will have his hands full to ensure buy-in for this Saturday.

· Homecoming. Saturday marks 2025 Homecoming for Boilermaker alumni. In what has been a relatively disappointing season to this point, I would expect decent attendance for a chilly October Saturday in what is a very winnable game for Purdue. During his time at UNLV, Odom won his first homecoming game but lost his second (worth noting, his 2024 HC game was against Boise State). Can the pomp and circumstance around campus motivate the squad?

Gambling Analysis

Numbers: The public seems to be starting to turn on the Boilers. After a pretty illuminating defeat against Northwestern, the public seems to think their money is best spent backing Rutgers. With only 26% of bets on the Boilers, and even less money on Purdue, this is absolutely a contrarian fade to take Purdue. Additionally, the spread has moved a little bit toward Purdue which has been surprising given the backing on Rutgers. I am a bit surprised that the money so far is on the under. This seems like an overreaction to the Browne news, but Rutgers has allowed a lot of points this year and so has Purdue. Rutgers is giving up over 450 yards a game defensively and are allowing almost 8.2 yards per play. They have been particularly bad in the pass game, so if Malachi Singleton needs a confidence booster throwing the football, this may be the perfect time. EDGE: Purdue Spread, Over

Trends: Trends are really not helpful this week. Schiano’s teams have typically responded well after a loss, but there is not a strong trend one way or the other. 6/7 of Rutgers’ games this year have gone over. So either the under is due, or, the overs will continue a historic run in a Rutgers game. EDGE: Push, Push

Situation: Both these teams come in trying to forget the prior week's performance. Purdue got shutout by Northwestern, but at least the defense played relatively well. Rutgers got its doors blown off by an angry Oregon team, a spot where Rutgers was the victim of circumstance. The perception has been Rutgers’ defense is incapable of stopping offenses and that is certainly grounded in merit. Purdue should be able to move the ball, but the question becomes without Browne, is Singleton capable of moving the offense down the field through the air? Neither team really has a situational advantage, and it is a push on total since Rutgers’ situational fade would be the under and Purdue’s would be the over. EDGE: None, Push

Total Analysis: After last Saturday’s game, I had an epiphany that this season is done, I need to make my money fading Purdue. It took maybe 2-3 days for me to snap out of that realm of rational thought and we are all aboard the contrarian train as we load up on the Boilers. If they cannot win Saturday, they will not win again this season. I would prefer ONE P4 win this season. A full week of practice from Malachi, a strong running performance from Mockobee, and a couple breakout bombs to Tuggle or MJ and we are in business. Purdue 38, Rutgers 24

Official Plays: 2 Units Purdue +1.5 (-110), 1 Unit Over 58.5 (-105), .25 Units Purdue to win by 13-18 (+825).

UNIT COUNTER YTD: -.08 Units (does not include bonus bets unless listed in official plays)

Bonus Bets: This game is an under the radar game, so there are no player props being offered by

BetMGM.

Welcome to the 2025 edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information that Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by BetMGM sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Disclaimer for those who gamble: ensure you manage your bankroll effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams is. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting that the sportsbooks are in the money-making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to Read Them: The ability to read odds provides a gambler with insight into how a sportsbook, also known as “Vegas,” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bets will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds mean that to win $10, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are favorable, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for unfavorable odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneyline odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115, then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 (-4.5 in my example above; obviously, this number would change week to week) or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by five or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats the hypothetical team above by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe fewer than 49 points will be scored and vice versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers who have demonstrated a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbooks use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book usually are -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. To win $10, you need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that would be helpful, please let me know.