Covering the Tracks: Purdue-USC

Our weekly Covering the Tracks column starts the year with a big 2-0 as Purdue covers the spread against Ball State and the total goes way under thanks to a shutout.  No line produced for Purdue/SIU until Saturday, so no column last week., However, Purdue did not cover.

MORE: Matchup preview: Purdue-USC | Purdue projected depth charts | From UNLV to Big Ten: Purdue’s Barry Odom, USC’s Jayden Maiava set for reunion | First Look: USC | First and 10: Purdue-USC | Three Thoughts From The Weekend: Devin Mockobee, Purdue vs. USC and more | 25 years later, Purdue to honor 2000 Rose Bowl team| The 3-2-1: Talking Mockobee workload, football IQ, summer of George and more | Opponent View: USC | Purdue Game Notes

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00 am on 9/12/25 via BetMGM:

Current spread: Purdue +20.5 (Opened Purdue +21.5).

Moneyline: Purdue +800, USC -1400

1H Spread: Purdue +11.5, O/U 30.5

Over/Under: 59.5 (Opened 59.5)

Season Records ATS

Purdue: 1-1 ATS, O/U 0-2

USC: 2-0 ATS, O/U 2-0

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 27% on Purdue, 81% on over

Money: 38% on Purdue, 87% on over

Executive Summary

In what should be a real measuring stick for both teams, Purdue looks to continue the momentum from their first two wins to start the season.  USC is in the same boat with two blowout victories.  Most of the bets and the money are on USC and the over.  It seems the public consensus is the high-powered USC offense will continue its dominance with its NCAA leading explosive play rate.  USC has not won an eastern time zone game since it joined the Big Ten, losing all three opportunities last year to Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland.  There are not many trends to analyze, but the over has been a trend for USC whenever they are away favorites.  The familiarity between Barry Odom and Jayden Maiava makes for a compelling storyline as well as the relationship between Josh Henson and Lincoln Riley.  

Trend Analysis for USC

· UNLV was 1-2 ATS as a home underdog under Coach Barry Odom.

· UNLV was 9-8 ATS against conference opponents under Odom.

· UNLV was 9-3 ATS when playing with equal rest as their opponent under Odom.

· UNLV was a 20 point underdog only once during Odom’s tenure.  The Rebels went to Ann Arbor and lost 35-7 to #1 ranked Michigan.  However, UNLV covered the 38 point spread.

· USC is 3-9 ATS as an away favorite under Riley.

· USC is 12-16 ATS in conference games under Riley.

· USC was 0-3 ATS in 2024 conference games where USC traveled to the eastern time zone (Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota).

· The over was 2-1 when UNLV was a home underdog under Odom.

· The over was 10-7 when UNLV played a conference opponent under Odom.

· The over is 8-4 when USC is an away favorite under Riley.

· The over is 19-9 when USC plays a conference game under Riley.

· The over went 1-1-1 in USC’s 2024 conference games in the eastern time zone.

Miscellaneous Factors

· All in the Familiarity.  It is a small world after all.  In his first major test as a Purdue head coach, Odom faces a familiar face in Jayden Maiava.  While Odom did not recruit Maiava, Maiava earned MWC freshman of the year honors under Odom in 2023.  Prior to the 2024 season, Maiava transferred to USC to play under current Purdue offensive coordinator, Josh Henson.  Odom and Henson should both be extremely familiar with Maiava and his tendencies.  In addition, Henson spent 3 seasons working on Lincoln Riley’s staff.  Henson did not call plays, but there is surely a two-way street of familiarity between Henson and Riley.  This creates a fascinating storyline, but how does it impact gambling?  Great question.  Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma took on Texas Tech and Baker’s former coach, Kliff Kingsbury, in 2016 with a final score of 66-59.  Texas Tech’s QB in that game was pretty good, some kid named Patrick Mahomes.

· Body Clocks. Much has already been said in the media, and often in this column, about the illustrious body clock factor.  Body clock, jet lag, travel fatigue, etc. are all ways of saying the same thing: does traveling across time zones impact performance?  We saw this in basketball (Brian Neubert was fantastic in bringing light to this), but more so where teams struggled once they returned home as opposed to during the road games.  Football seems to be different.  USC lost all 3 eastern time zone games last year.  This includes Maryland, who was pretty mediocre last year. The spread for USC-Maryland was only 7, suggesting Vegas factored the travel in.  USC has already announced they will adjust routine and travel plans to better prepare their team for eastern time zone games.  Will it work?  Of the three eastern time zone games played last year, two were in the afternoon slate (Michigan and Maryland).  

The Rosey Reunion.  Maybe the single biggest canon event in my personal Purdue fandom journey, the 2000 Rose Bowl team makes their 25th anniversary trip back to West Lafayette Saturday.  Drew Brees has already been confirmed in attendance and many other Boiler legends will likely join.  Can this provide some extra inspiration to the team?  Coach Odom will surely hope so.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers: The numbers are lining up great for Purdue.  CAVEAT: the numbers lined up great for Purdue many times last year, particularly against Notre Dame, and look what happened.  Additionally, the general public typically has some pretty good early weeks.  The sportsbooks were begging for Duke to cover last week against Illinois, and Duke QB Darian Mensah decided ball security did not matter.  With all that being said, we have a significant amount of bets on USC spread and the money backs that up.  However, there is more money on Purdue than bets suggesting a slight sharp edge to Purdue.  For contrarians, Purdue has a massive edge with over 70% of bets and money on USC.  Additionally, the line movement is very interesting.  All the money and bets coming in on USC and the spread dipped down to 20.5 from 21.5.  This is significant for two reasons: (1) the spread moved away from the team receiving a large majority of the bets and (2) the number was moved by a point so that the spread now rests under 21, which is a pretty significant football number.  My gut reaction is Sportsbooks want to encourage even more bets on USC, since USC bettors would be able to cover with a 21 point win.  Sportsbooks will be rooting for the Boilers.  Addressing the total, it is a very low total amount of bets and money, but almost every bet made on the total is on the over.  The total has been weird in years past in some of these games, so the contrarian angle is under, but it would certainly not surprise me for the over to hit.   EDGE: Purdue +20.5, Under 59.5

Trends: As will be the case most of this year, there is not much trend analysis for Purdue and Odom.  In Odom’s tenure at UNLV, there is not a significant trend in play.  Odom was a 20+ point underdog once in his time at UNLV.  That 2023 UNLV team covered at the Big House against Michigan.  I rewatched some of that game and it became evident that Odom’s goal was to limit the Michigan run game defensively and on offense, short quick passing, lots of runs, and an attempt to shorten the game.  He went for it three different times on fourth down in that game as well.  I imagine he will keep that aggressiveness.  Lincoln Riley’s USC teams have struggled as away favorites and really have struggled heading to the eastern time zone.  The constant?  The over has been a cash cow for the USC teams in this spot. EDGE: Purdue, Over.

Situation:  This is a very interesting situational spot.  USC has looked really good in their first two games, but they have played no one.  They lead college football in explosive play rate, but again, have faced Georgia Southern and Missouri State.  Makai Lemon has really emerged as a big-play threat, and Maiava continues to improve.  Can this continue against a power-4 defense?  The public clearly thinks very highly of USC and the USC offense as evidenced by the numbers of bets on USC and the over.  It is impossible to gauge the public’s opinion of Purdue and how much they factor in last year.  I know I am guilty of this as well.  I cannot help but compare the situational spot Purdue is in to almost the exact same spot as Purdue Notre Dame last year.  We largely do not know how good or bad Purdue is since there has not been a game against a power-4 opponent, but we should have a pretty good idea after Saturday.  Ryan Browne left a lot to be desired on the field against SIU, but could that have been a look ahead spot for the Boilers?  Purdue seems to have a slight situational edge because of the general public’s reaction to the USC offense which means the under gets a slight edge too.    EDGE: Purdue, Under.

Total Analysis:  Two massive questions dictate the outcome for me: (1) can Purdue run the ball? (2) can Purdue limit USC’s big plays?  I would expect Odom attempts to shorten the game by leaning on Mockobee and playing a deep shell defense to prevent any massive USC plays.  Does Maiava have the patience to “matriculate the ball down the field”? (shoutout Hank Stram).  Could we see a situation similar to Purdue versus Illinois last year where a Purdue coach, in this case Henson, knows the opponent well enough to exploit their weaknesses?  I am worried the “USC cannot win in the eastern time zone” narrative is getting overexploited and relied upon by Purdue bettors, but the numbers present too much of a value opportunity to pass.  This is not the 2024 Purdue Boilers, and the sins of last year cannot be held against this team.  So with that being said, I will be riding the reverse line movement and major contrarian angle by taking the Boilers and the Under.  USC 38 – Purdue 21.   

Official Plays: 1 Unit Purdue +21 (I am buying the half point to 21 and taking -120 on the odds), 1 Unit Under 59.5.  .25 Units on Purdue +800, why not.

UNIT COUNTER YTD: +2.73 Units

Bonus Bets: BetMGM finally has props offered, albeit very limited compared to other books.  There is no first TD offering, but anytime is available.  George Burhenn at +700 is interesting.  He is starting to look healthier and last week showed a glimpse into some chemistry between him and Browne.  Speaking of, Browne +400 is enticing as well.  A redzone scramble is certainly in the realm of possibility.  For USC, Lake McRee at +230 is my lean.  

Welcome to the 2025 edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by BetMGM sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 (-4.5 in my example above, obviously this number would change week to week) or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by 5 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats the hypothetical team above by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.