Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Washington

A look at Saturday’s Purdue-Washington game from a gambling perspective.

Column once again goes 2-0 on sides (Spread, Total) and almost nailed the exact score
with 34-10 being 4 points off the 38-10 prediction. Max Klare receiving yards cashes the over in the first half. No touchdown scorers got home for us though, and we were a point off the 25-30 point OSU win prop. Still a positive day nonetheless.

Covering The Tracks: Washington

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00 am on 11/7/25 via BetMGM:
Current spread: Purdue +16.5 (Opened Purdue +15.5).
Moneyline: Purdue +575, Washington -900
1H Spread: Purdue +9.5, O/U 27.5
Over/Under: 51.5 (Opened 52.5)

Season Records ATS

Purdue: 5-5 ATS, O/U 2-8
Washington: 4-5 ATS, O/U 4-5

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 32% on Purdue, 55% on over
Money: 11% on Purdue, 1% on over

Executive Summary

Purdue heads to rainy Seattle for a showdown with Washington and former Purdue head coach, now Washington DC, Ryan Walters. The total handle for this game is low, as expected. This is a low-profile game and bets will not come in till close to game time. With that being said, early money is backing the Huskies with the points. Washington HC Jedd Fisch has been very good ATS as a home favorite and after a loss, which bodes well for the UW spread. Washington is fresh off a big upset loss at Wisconsin and surely will look to get back to winning ways.

Trend Analysis for Washington
· UNLV was 6-1 ATS as an away underdog under Coach Barry Odom.
· UNLV was 3-4 ATS after a loss under Odom.
· Purdue is 2-2 ATS as an away underdog under Odom.
· Purdue is 3-4 ATS after a loss under Odom.
· Washington is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite under Coach Jedd Fisch.
· Washington is 5-3 ATS after a loss under Fisch.
· The over was 2-5 when UNLV was an away underdog under Odom.
· The over was 6-1 after a UNLV loss under Odom.
· The over is 1-3 when Purdue is an away underdog under Odom.
· The over is 2-4 after a Purdue loss under Odom.
· The over is 5-4 when Washington is a home favorite under Fisch.
· The over is 4-4 after a Washington loss under Fisch.
Miscellaneous Factors

· Walterweight Fight. Without question, the biggest storyline Saturday in Seattle will be Ryan
Walters coaching the Washington defense against the Boilers. We do not need to get into the past two years as all are familiar. From a gambling standpoint, what is a bit interesting is
Walters’ relationship with Odom and the results between Purdue-Illinois the last two years.
Odom and Walters worked together at Mizzou before Walters took the Illinois job. Quite a bit of time has gone by since the two coached together, but there is certainly still going to be some familiarity between the two. Ryan Walters always had his former team, Illinois, circled in his two games leading the Boilers. The Boilers blew out the Illini in 2023 and played in one of the most entertaining games of 2024 losing 50-49 in Champaign. If we scrutinize the 2024 game, one would have expected Walters, being a defensive guy, to know how to stop the Illini, but that was not the case. Rather, Illinois had plenty of success scoring on the Boiler offense, while Walters was able to use his knowledge of the Illinois defensive scheme to help the Boilers put up points. Could we see a similar result? I would think not, primarily because the scheme and the entire roster is completely different from Walters’ tenure at Purdue. However, the Odom familiarity now paired with Purdue makes for an interesting thought that maybe we are due for an offensive explosion.

· Body Clocks. Washington became the latest victim last week of what a cross-country flight
into a different time zone can do to a team. The Huskies gave Wisconsin the highlight of their season as the double-digit underdog Badgers beat Washington outright on Saturday. Purdue will do the opposite, traveling West into the Pacific Time zone to take on the Huskies Saturday night. There is no way to predict the toll the flight will have on Purdue, but this will be the fourth time this season a Big Ten has played at Washington and flown cross country: Illinois lost by 17, Rutgers lost by 19, and Ohio State won by 18. It would not shock me to see a slow start from the Boilers.

· Saturday in Seattle. In what can be of shock to no one, forecasts are calling for rain in Seattle on Saturday night. While I am unsure how much rain it will be, it is always worth factoring in mother nature to the handicapping side. With that being said, more often than not, the concern is more about wind than rain (unless it’s 2018 Purdue-EMU). The wet conditions can obviously foster some ball security issues and a fumble or two can completely change a cover or not.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers: Purdue has done a great job covering the last couple weeks in Big Ten play. Once
again, we have a game where the majority of bets and money fall on the opposition. Washington is receiving a majority of the bets and almost all of the money. It is worth noting, the total handle (amount bet) for this game is low. Large bets can really swing the percentages. I would expect people to bet much more heavily toward game time once the noon and 3:30 kicks have settled. Still, the public seems to be backing Washington with 89% of the money following the Huskies. The numbers related to the total are pretty much unusable. 1% of bets on over suggests an extremely low number of bets placed on this so far. EDGE: Purdue Spread, Push

Trends: Odom was really good with UNLV as an away underdog, but there is not much of a
trend showing for this situation at Purdue. The biggest trend is how well Jedd Fisch has done in this spot with Washington. The Huskies are 7-2 ATS as home favorites, hard to go against that. Both of these coaches have not been with their programs long, so the trend analysis is a bit weak. There is no edge for the totals. EDGE: Washington spread, Push

Situation: Both of these teams are in pretty bad spots off last week. Purdue, all things
considered, cannot be too upset with only a 24-point loss to the #1 team in the country.
However, the 8-game losing streak is certainly weighing heavy and noted by gamblers.
Washington is coming off a really bad loss at Wisconsin where the Huskies put up just 10 points in Madison. The Huskies are in a prime bounce back spot and will look to make a statement against the Boilers. Both team’s offenses are nothing to write home about as of late either. Purdue has not scored 25 or more points since Illinois on October 4th. I would still expect Washington to pray with a little extra pride on behalf of their DC. EDGE: Washington, Over.

Total Analysis: I expect both teams to score points, regardless of the rain. Both these offenses have played poorly as of late and are due for some explosive plays. The familiarity between Odom and Walters with the other’s scheme will likely lead to some exploitation by each team’s offense. I do think ultimately, the Washington offense scores too much for Purdue to keep up with. Washington 35, Purdue 17.

Official Plays: 1 Units Washington -16.5 (-110), 1 Unit Over 51.5 (-110), .25 Units Washington
to win by 13-18 (+400).

UNIT COUNTER YTD: -2.53 Units (does not include bonus bets unless listed in official plays)

Bonus Bets: This is currently being written from the Birmingham-Shuttlesworth Airport, which means, thanks to Alabama gambling laws, I do not have access to any player props… WHAT A WIN LAST NIGHT BOILERS.

BetMGM.

Welcome to the 2025 edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information that Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by BetMGM sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Disclaimer for those who gamble: ensure you manage your bankroll effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams is. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting that the sportsbooks are in the money-making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to Read Them: The ability to read odds provides a gambler with insight into how a sportsbook, also known as “Vegas,” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bets will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds mean that to win $10, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are favorable, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for unfavorable odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneyline odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115, then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 (-4.5 in my example above; obviously, this number would change week to week) or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by five or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats the hypothetical team above by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe fewer than 49 points will be scored and vice versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers who have demonstrated a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbooks use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book usually are -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. To win $10, you need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that would be helpful, please let me know.