Express Word: Basketball Fearful Predictions

By Brian Neubert

GoldandBlack.com’s Weekly Word is a weekly (imagine that) column written by Brian Neubert. It is comprised of opinion and analysis on whatever topics might come to mind In a given week, or better said, 47 minutes prior to deadline. It runs every Wednesday afternoon. This week, it’s Monday due to negligence on Neubert’s part.

FEARFUL PREDICTIONS

A tradition like no other: Some sites have their fearless predictions. Not us. Ours terrify us.

Here’s some predictions for Purdue’s 2022-2023 basketball season, which tips off Tuesday night against Milwaukee.

The freshman guards will be fine As much as inexperience in the backcourt will be cause for trepidation, Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer will show a high floor right away and improve every week as the season progresses.

Purdue will get pressured early in the season, a lot Purdue’s youth in the backcourt and lack of depth in the backcourt will compel non-conference opponents to test the hell out of Smith, Loyer, Ethan Morton and anyone else with the ball in their hands. That the non-conference schedule landed in such a way that there are a bunch of pressing teams on there might be a real long-term plus for Purdue.

Everything this preseason has suggested that Purdue’s ready to handle it. It was a high priority in practice. That’s for sure.

The Boilermakers will even up in turnover margin — Make no mistake here, folks, turnovers will be a concern for this team. Last year’s casualness with the ball might not carry over, but inexperience will show up at times.

That said, this group will be more conscious of the issue and make better decisions. As much as this can be an issue relevant to Purdue’s young guards, it’s a big deal for Zach Edey.

After being -2.3 last season, here’s guessing that this team forces a few more turnovers and commits a few fewer itself and doesn’t have to overcome the same possessions deficit as last season.

Purdue will win the Big Ten’s sixth man of the year award — But I just don’t know if it will Caleb Furst or Trey Kaufman-Renn who does it. Both of these guys could be among Purdue’s top five players, but also some of its most impactful due to their potential to both produce as well as change games. They both may have All-Big Ten futures, and their collective impact this season could be considerable.

People will spend all year comparison this team to last year’s … despite the fact we absolutely should not. It is not relevant context. This team is entirely different from last year’s in almost every way aside from being enormous up front and able to shoot from the outside.

This will be a very good offensive rebounding team Maybe one of the best Matt Painter’s ever had. Zach Edey is already a force on the offensive glass, and Mason Gillis a force of nature at times. But off the bench, Caleb Furst and Trey Kaufman-Renn both possess the same sort of tenacity that Gillis does. That’s three real go-getters on the offensive boards. Furst’s quickness and bounce will show up often this season when matched against bigger, slower players. And during the preseason Kaufman-Renn showed some real will in beating people to spots for second chances.

People will get mad when Ethan Morton doesn’t score Don’t. His value lies in his across-the-board, little-bit-of-everything substance. Yeah, he’ll have more opportunities but he doesn’t need to change as a player. This season will be an exercise in team-building, and players can be part of that without putting up scoring numbers. Now, what he will have to do is be aggressive enough to make defenses respect him. He and Braden Smith — both ball-movers by nature — will need to do that to make everyone on the floor has to be guarded.

Purdue will have caught a break on its early Big Ten draw All due respect to Minnesota and Nebraska, but Purdue drawing those two teams in December during what should be the Boilermakers’ formative days will go down as a break, a chance for this team. Those are two games Purdue should win and a chance for the Boilermakers to ease into the heavy stuff come Big Ten season.

Purdue will take a slight step back shooting threes Purdue’s just as skilled now as before from a shooting perspective, but may take some time to get in a rhythm in terms of getting the right shots and taking the right shots. Purdue’s going to play inside-out and that’s where so much of the Boilermakers’ three-point success has come in recent years, but those were much more experienced teams than this one and much more experienced playing together.

One thing of note: Purdue’s going to want to be able to shoot people out of zones at times. Purdue will not be a great penetration team, but swarming Edey might be a smart play early in the season, as might giving young players a lot of different looks.

Zach Edey will average 24 minutes per game And that’s perfectly fine, because it’s about quality over quantity and the Furst/Kaufman-Renn combination with the presumed second unit is more than capable of preventing drop-off. On some nights, there might even be net gain.

Leading scorer: Zach Edey

Second-leading scorer: No one player will do it more than eight times this season.

Leading rebounder: Zach Edey

Leading, uh, assister (???): Ethan Morton

Leading high-volume three-point shooter: Caleb Furst

Leading shot-blocker: Zach Edey

Leader in steals: Braden Smith

Regular season win total: 21

Big Ten regular season record: 13-7

NCAA seed: 9

Final win total: 25

RANDOM THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK

• It was no secret that Purdue was going to miss Milton Wright this season. It was also no secret that Purdue was bound to miss Garrett Miller more than people might have thought, because how often does an offense’s outlook hinge on a No. 2 tight end? Broc Thompson‘s absence has obviously mattered, too.

But, what this season’s imbalance toward Charlie Jones — and thank heavens for that mid-summer night’s dream coming true for Purdue — has underscored is both the fact that Purdue’s next generation of wide receivers simply haven’t become that guy yet, or those guys, better said. Or they haven’t been able to stay on the field, or be on it at all.

Purdue needed a TJ Sheffield or Mershawn Rice to really take off this season; it needed Thompson and Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen to be available; it needed Tyrone Tracy and/or Elijah Canion to be heavy contributors.

• This week, Purdue signs Myles Colvin, an exceptional talent with the ability to change the Boilermakers’ complexion immediately next season. There’s no one that Braden Smith should be more looking forward to playing with than him.

Purdue’s becoming much more dynamic on the wing, and with Colvin and Kanon Catchings coming in and Camden Heide presumably coming out of redshirt, it starts next season.