Express Matchup Preview: Purdue vs. Indiana

Purdue vs. Indiana, from a matchup perspective.

Date/Time: Saturday, November 25, Noon E.T.

Location: Ross-Ade Stadium

Surface: Bermuda Grass

Capacity: 61,411 (tickets)

2023 schedules/records: Purdue 3-8 (2-6 Big Ten), Indiana 3-8 (1-7 Big Ten)

Series notes: The 125th meeting between Purdue and Indiana will occur Saturday afternoon in Ross-Ade Stadium. The Boilermakers hold a 76-42-6 advantage in the series, which dates back to 1891, a 60-0 win for Purdue. Purdue enters the game on a two-game win streak against Indiana, defeating the Hoosiers to cap both the 2021 and 2022 seasons after the game was not played in 2020. The 2022 win clinched Purdue’s first-ever Big Ten West title as the visitors overcame a halftime deficit to win 30-16. Purdue will look to build on its 39-23-4 lead in games played in West Lafayette.

TV: BTN (PxP Chris Vosters, Analyst Brock Vereen, Sidelines Megan McKewon)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Pete Quinn, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Purdue -3, O/U 45

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Indiana Roster | Indiana Game Notes

Pregame: First Look: Indiana | First and 10: Indiana at Purdue | Ryan Walters ‘excited’ about NIL situation for Purdue | Opponent View: Indiana | In the Huddle: Ben Farrell | Sheffield enters the portal

Indiana running game versus Purdue against the run

The Hoosiers hoped for a better run game than they’ve put together so far in 2023, as they enter the season finale averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and 120 yards per game, good for 11th in the conference. The tandem of Trent Howland and Josh Henderson has led the way in the run game for Indiana in recent weeks, as speedster Jaylin Lucas mostly sees his action in the return game. Howland, who moved from linebacker to tailback, has found the end zone in consecutive weeks, but he and Henderson share carries fairly evenly.

Purdue must keep an eye on the running ability of quarterback Brendan Sorsby. While he’s not the fastest player on the team, he’s shown the willingness to use his legs, finding the end zone four times on the ground. He averages 27 rushing yards per game.

The run defense has improved week-to-week for Purdue, as the Boilermakers lowered their season average of rushing yards allowed down to 141 per game. If there’s a weakness to the Purdue run defense, however, it’s that it’s been very susceptible to allowing big plays. Explosive run plays loomed large in losses at Iowa and Northwestern, and in a game that figures to come down to the wire, Purdue can ill-afford to allow easy touchdowns to Indiana. Early on in the season, Purdue struggled to contain the quarterback run. Since then, Purdue hasn’t faced many mobile quarterbacks. Will Indiana look to run Sorsby frequently and test Purdue’s improvement?

Indiana passing game versus Purdue against the pass

After rotating frequently between Tayven Jackson and Brendan Sorsby early on this season, Indiana settled on Sorsby to lead the offense throughout most of Big Ten play. He’s taken care of the football, throwing 12 touchdowns to just two interceptions, but he doesn’t throw for many yards. In Indiana’s last five games, he’s cleared the 200-yard mark just twice. He’s improved his completion percentage throughout the season, though, and serves as a fine “game manager” for the Hoosier offense.

Indiana lost two of its top three receivers recently, as Cam Camper and Omar Cooper Jr. went down with injuries. While Camper has been ruled out for the season, it’s possible that the Cooper returns for Saturday’s rivalry game. Help would be welcomed for wide receiver Donaven McCulley, who leads Indiana in receiving. The tall, lanky former quarterback leads the team with five receiving touchdowns and put together a monster game at Illinois recently. If Cooper can’t go, expect to see targets for DeQuece Carter and the tailbacks out of the backfield.

Purdue looks like it will finish last in the Big Ten in pass defense, allowing 241 yards per game through the air. Adjustment to Ryan Walters’ man-heavy coverage scheme was expected, but an injury to top corner Marquis Wilson made matters worse for Purdue. Last week, converted wide receiver Zion Steptoe made his first-career start at corner and showed some inexperience. He, true freshman Derrick Rogers Jr. and JUCO transfer Botros Alisandro rotate between the second outside corner spot with no true great option.

The Purdue pass rush has been a story of the 2023 season. Although it played last week without Big Ten sack leader Nic Scourton, Khordae Sydnor stepped up and recorded a pair of sacks in his absence. Purdue will need the pass rush to help out early and often on Saturday to force early decisions and give Dillon Thieneman a chance to make plays on the ball. He’s tied for third in the conference with four interceptions.

Purdue running game versus Indiana against the run

In each of the last two games, Purdue ran for more than 300 yards. The Boilermakers ran wild against Minnesota before implementing a run-heavy approach without starting quarterback Hudson Card against Northwestern. Tyrone Tracy went down with an injury late in the game last week after rushing for 160 yards and will be a key injury to monitor ahead of kickoff. He and Devin Mockobee have combined to form a nice one-two punch for Purdue this season and will end up crossing the 1,500-yard mark in combined rushing yards.

Card missed the Northwestern game with a rib injury suffered against Minnesota, a game where he used his legs early and often. In his first career action, true freshman quarterback Ryan Browne ran the ball 21 times last weekend. If Card plays, his ability to run will be worth watching. If not, expect plenty of designed runs for Browne.

The Hoosiers enter the season finale second-to-last in the Big Ten in rushing defense, allowing more than 150 yards per game on the ground. The only team to allow more? Northwestern, who surrendered 303 yards to Purdue’s rushing attack last week. Opposing offenses have run for 19 touchdowns against Indiana this year, which could bode well for a Purdue offense that struggles to score in the red zone. Indiana has only forced nine fumbles on the season, and just three of those have resulted in recoveries for the Hoosiers.

Purdue passing game versus Indiana against the pass

Will Hudson Card give it a go on Saturday? And if so, how close to 100% is he? Those are the questions for Purdue, who kept the ball out of the air as much as possible in the loss at Northwestern. When Purdue did throw the ball, it rarely pushed it down the field, as just five passes went 10+ yards through the air. If Card can go, Purdue will look for him to build on a strong performance against Minnesota, perhaps his best as a Boilermaker. If not, how Purdue handles the position will be key to watch. While Bennett Meredith and Browne rotated series for most of the game, it was Browne who played the final three drives to try and engineer a comeback.

Purdue’s pass catchers have been limited this season, as Deion Burks is the only receiver who enters Saturday with more than 400 receiving yards on the season. Purdue utilized the running backs quite a bit last week and could do the same again this week and expect to see more balls thrown Garrett Miller’s way. The big tight end looks back to full health and provides a big target for quarterbacks to hit.

The Hoosiers’ pass defense sits second-to-last in the conference, ahead of only Purdue. Generating just 19 sacks in 11 games, the pass rush doesn’t get to quarterbacks often, allowing them to buy time to throw downfield. Indiana does start a solid group of safeties in Louis Moore and Phillip Dunnam, each of whom enters with three interceptions on the year, but the Hoosiers have forced just ten interceptions as a team. Indiana’s defense sits last in the conference in defensive efficiency, but the injury report may dictate how much Purdue can exploit it.

Special teams

Another week, more special teams problems for the Boilermakers. Kicker Ben Freehill missed a 44-yard attempt, bringing the season total to just five makes on 13 tries. The punting game remains inconsistent despite a veteran punter in Jack Ansell. In the return game, TJ Sheffield fumbled a punt last week and Tyrone Tracy muffed a kickoff, forcing Purdue to start inside its own 15-yard line. Outside of Tracy’s kick return touchdown in the season-opener, not much has gone Purdue’s way in the game’s third phase this season.

Despite missing a game-tying attempt in the closing seconds last week against Michigan State, Indiana kicker Chris Freeman enters making nine of 13 attempts this season, though he’s just five of nine from 30+ yards. Punter James Evans is a strength for Indiana, averaging over 45 yards per punt with 19 traveling more than 50 yards. Returner Jaylin Lucas is among the nation’s best. The speed demon has two kickoff return touchdowns to his name on his career and can strike at any time with the ball in his hands.

Intangibles

On the surface, neither team has much to play for on Saturday besides bragging rights. Both squads enter with identical 3-8 records for the first time since 2014, as frustrating seasons covered the entire state of Indiana this fall.

However, the game looks very different for the two coaches in the matchup. Purdue’s Ryan Walters will close his first season in West Lafayette with an eye toward the future, hoping to avoid similar seasons moving forward. While the season didn’t turn out the way Purdue hoped, optimism remains about the program’s long-term future. Even during a four-game losing streak, the Boilermakers never appeared to throw in the towel.

On the other sideline, questions linger about the future of Indiana coach Tom Allen. After receiving a seven-year contract extension following the 2020 season, Allen’s squad has won just nine games with a mere three of those in Big Ten play.

The mystery in the room lies in Allen’s contract. Should Indiana administration elect to move on from the seventh-year head coach, it would owe him just shy of $20 million, a large number for a school that historically would rather invest money in the basketball program. Will that weigh on the minds of Indiana’s players and coaching staff on Saturday?