Matchup Preview: Who has the edge?

Purdue vs. Illinois, from a matchup perspective.

Date/Time: Saturday, October 4, Noon EDT

Location: Ross-Ade Stadium

Surface: Bermuda Grass

Capacity: 61,441 (tickets)

2025 schedules/records: Purdue 2-2 (0-1 Big Ten) | Illinois 4-1 (1-1 Big Ten)

Series notes: The 101th meeting between the two will take place with the Cannon Trophy on the line. Purdue leads the series 48-46-6 with a strong record in recent years. The Boilermakers have won 15 of the last 20 meetings between the two, but Illinois will hope to retain possession of the Cannon after a wild 50-49 overtime win last season. Since taking over in 2021, Bret Bielema is 1-3 against Purdue while at Illinois.

TV: BTN (PxP Mark Followill, Analyst Yogi Roth, Sidelines Rhett Lewis)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Mark Herrmann, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Illinois -9.5, O/U 55.5

Weather: High of 87 degrees with mostly cloudy skies

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Illinois Roster | Illinois Game Notes |

Pregame: First and 10: Illinois at Purdue | First Look: Illinois | Purdue aims to turn four-game lessons into results after bye | The 3-2-1: Maturation of a QB, October possibilities, respect for Bret and more | Full circle moment comes for Purdue’s Ryan Browne against Illinois |

Illinois running game versus Purdue against the run

Illinois’ rushing totals don’t jump off the page, but the statistics get skewed when one considers that the Illini ran for just two yards in the blowout loss to Indiana two weeks ago. It ranks 11th in the Big Ten, averaging 133.4 yards per game on the ground. But, it ran the ball successfully last week, totaling 171 yards against USC.

Kaden Feagen leads the squad with 60 yards per game. He’s seen limited action in the last two seasons, but he rose to the top spot on the depth chart this season. He gets the bulk of the carries, but Ca’Lil Valentine and Aidan Laughery will get periodic carries behind him. While Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer enters with -11 net rushing yards on the season, he did carry the ball 10 times for 60 yards in the win over Purdue last season.

Purdue’s run defense struggled mightily against Notre Dame, as the Fighting Irish gashed Purdue for 258 yards on the ground. The Boilermakers struggled to compete at the point of attack, and when Notre Dame ballcarriers bounced it outside, Purdue often took too long to get to the edges. Opponents average 157.3 rushing yards per game against Purdue, ranking the Boilermakers 86th nationally in run defense.

Mani Powell and Charles Correa remain a bright spot on the defense as classic downhill linebackers, and defensive backs Myles Slusher and Tahj Ra-El lead the team in tackles. With defensive tackle TJ Lindsey out for the season with a knee injury, Purdue must find a way to create more disruption at the point of attack. Illinois’ offensive line doesn’t present the same imposing threat that Notre Dame’s did, but Purdue will need to get creative to stop the run game.

Illinois passing game versus Purdue against the pass

Altmyer will make his third start against Purdue this weekend. He didn’t exactly shine in 2023 as Purdue raced past his Illini 44-19, but he delivered a gem through the air last season. In the whacky 50-49 win, he threw for 379 yards and three touchdowns, while also giving Purdue problems with his legs. He’s off to a great start in 2025, completing 71% of his passes with an 11-to-zero touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Gone from last season’s squads? Top targets Pat Bryant and Zahkari Franklin. Now, Hank Beatty, who caught just 20 passes last season, stands out as the team’s go-to wide receiver. He’s hauled in 27 passes through five games, and he ranks seventh in the league in receiving yards. Aside from Beatty, it’s a largely anonymous group that follows the “wide receiver by committee” approach. Illinois would like to protect Altmyer better, though, as he’s taken 17 sacks through five games.

Purdue’s pass defense saw its worst performance to date against the Fighting Irish. It started ominously, as Notre Dame connected on a 67-yard bomb to score on its first offensive play. Though Slusher did force the defense’s first and only turnover of the season on a strip sack, nothing else went well for Purdue’s pass defense. The Boilermakers can’t seem to create pressure without bringing extra blitzers, which puts defensive coordinator Mike Scherer in a compromising position.

When the Boilermakers drop more men into coverage, the quarterback tends to find enough time for someone to come open. When Purdue brings more pressure, it’s seen some success getting to the passer, but it puts the secondary in peril. Opposing quarterbacks complete 65% of their passes against Purdue, and the Boilermaker defense still looks for its first interception of the season.

Purdue running game versus Illinois against the run

Purdue’s run game struggles reached a new level in South Bend. The final stat sheet shows that Purdue managed 2.7 yards per carry, but even that number came with some garbage time assistance. Devin Mockobee squeaked out just 1.3 yards per attempt, as Notre Dame physically overwhelmed Purdue at the point of attack. Purdue ranks 17th in the Big Ten and 117th nationally in rushing offense, a reflection of the inability to generate a push up front.

Mockobee carries a heavy load on this team. Through four games, he’s recorded 70 carries. Next among Purdue running backs? That’s Antonio Harris, who’s toted the rock just 12 times. Virginia Tech transfer Malachi Thomas sits right behind him with 10 carries. Whether Purdue will look to divvy up carries differently post-bye week remains a question, but expect Mockobee to continue seeing the bulk of the action. How much more does Purdue look to run Ryan Browne? With seven games in as many weeks starting on Saturday, the Boilermakers must keep No. 15 healthy.

Purdue passing game versus Illinois against the pass

One of the brightest spots in the season’s first third came at the quarterback position. While Browne demonstrated flashes of ability in his limited action in 2023 and 2024, questions remained about his ability to lead the offense. Interceptions remain an issue, as he’s thrown five in four games, but he’s shown resolve to battle back and not fold when adversity strikes. Browne ranks fifth in the Big Ten, averaging 259 passing yards per game. His next step: complete a clean game with no turnovers, which he’s not done since the season opener.

Another bright spot comes on the outside, where several wide receivers opened eyes early on. Michael Jackson III leads the team in both receptions and yards, showcasing his years of experience as a reliable target. Nitro Tuggle continues to show why recruiting services loved his potential. He caught two long passes against Notre Dame, including a contested deep ball. Arhmad Branch and EJ Horton look like nice pieces, too. Will we see the season debuts of De’Nylon Morrissette and/or Chauncey Magwood? Purdue will need more help in the pass catching department after George Burhenn’s injury at Notre Dame. Tight end depth gets thin without him.

Opposing quarterbacks see some success against this year’s Illinois defense. They complete 65% of passes, and the Illinois defense enters with just two picks on the season. Illinois presents a respectable pass rush, which has generated 13 sacks. Edge rusher Gabe Jacas passed on the NFL Draft and already boasts four sacks on the year.

Since losing top corner Xavier Scott at the end of the win over Western Michigan, the secondary has shown weaknesses. Indiana sliced and diced the Illini defense, while USC saw its share of success moving the ball through the air. But, aside from Scott’s absence, the Illinois defensive backfield should enter Saturday in fairly good shape. It’s a veteran crew that might not ooze with NFL potential, but it won’t be fazed by a road environment in West Lafayette.

Special teams

Purdue couldn’t ask for a better start to the season in the kicking game. After an up-and-down freshman season, Spencer Porath remains perfect, sailing all seven field goal attempts between the uprights. In his career, he’s made all three of his tries from 40+ yards. Punter Jack McCallister might be the team’s most valuable player through four games. He’s sent six of his 11 punts longer than 50 yards, and he sits inside the top 10 nationally, averaging over 49 yards per punt.

The return game leaves more to be desired, however. Purdue surrendered a kickoff return for a touchdown at Notre Dame, as opponents average 31 yards per kick return. Meanwhile, the Boilermaker return game remains a non-factor, a frequent refrain in recent Purdue memory. Purdue doesn’t attempt to return many kicks or punts, with just a total of nine return attempts this season.

Illinois kicker David Olano returned after a strong season in 2024, where he made 17 of his 20 field goal tries. He’s picked up where he left off, making six of seven thus far, including a game-winner from 41 yards out as time expired last week against USC. But, he has had one kick blocked.

Former Purdue punter Keelan Crimmins handles the duties and picked up where he left off in West Lafayette. He’s averaging over 46 yards per boot this season, and he’s limiting opponents’ ability to return. Beatty does have a 69-yard punt return touchdown under his belt, but the Illini rarely look to return kickoffs.

Intangibles

The situational edge certainly favors Purdue. The Boilermakers enter off of a well-timed bye week, where they were able to regroup following consecutive losses and gameplan around key injuries to TJ Lindsey and George Burhenn. A good crowd at Ross-Ade Stadium awaits the Boilermakers, who must take advantage of a somewhat-favorable October schedule.

Meanwhile, Illinois will play its sixth game in as many weeks. While some key players have returned, injuries plagued the Fighting Illini in their noncompetitive loss at Indiana two weeks back. This trip to Purdue is sandwiched behind two highly-anticipated matchups in Champaign. Last week, fans rushed the field following a walk-off field goal to beat USC. Next week, FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff returns to Gies Memorial Stadium for a matchup with the reigning national champion Ohio State Buckeyes.

Though the Illini won last season’s matchup in wild fashion, the recent series history strongly favors the Boilermakers. Purdue has taken 15 of the last 20 meetings, including eight of the last 10. Illinois last won in West Lafayette in 2019, a game played in a torrential downpour. Bielema holds a 1-3 record against Purdue during his time at Illinois.

While Purdue looks dramatically different than it did when these two met last October, Illinois looks much the same. The orange and blue returned 16 starters from last season’s 10-win squad, including the entire offensive line. This was the second-most returning starters among Power Four programs. The coaching staff remained much in tact, giving a strong sense of continuity in Champaign. On the flip side, it’s a brand new Purdue team, still coming together just four games into the Odom era.