Matchup Preview: Who has the edge?

Purdue at Northwestern, from a matchup perspective.

Date/Time: Saturday, October 18, 3 p.m. EDT

Location: Martin Stadium

Surface: Natural Grass

Capacity: 12,023 (tickets)

2025 schedules/records: Purdue 2-4 (0-3 Big Ten) | Northwestern 4-2 (2-1 Big Ten)

Series notes: Purdue holds a sizable 55-29-1 advantage in the all-time series, but the recent history favors the Wildcats. Northwestern enters on a two-game win streak in the series. In 2023, in the final game at the old Ryan Field, the Wildcats won a low-scoring 23-15 affair with Purdue missing its starting quarterback. Last season, Northwestern walked it off on a 25-yard touchdown pass in overtime. Since the Big Ten split to the East/West division structure in 2014, the two programs have met each season, with Northwestern victorious in eight of the 11 contests.

TV: BTN (PxP Guy Haberman, Analyst Yogi Roth, Sidelines Rhett Lewis)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Mark Herrmann, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Northwestern -3.5, O/U 47.5

Weather: High of 68 degrees with overcast skies, winds of 10-15 MPH and a chance of showers

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Northwestern Roster | Northwestern Game Notes

Pregame: First Look: Northwestern | First and 10: Purdue at Northwestern | Barry Odom: Purdue’s progress nice, but it’s time to deliver wins | The 3-2-1: Talking dropped passes, face masks, red zone woes and more | Opponent View: Northwestern |

Northwestern running game versus Purdue against the run

Northwestern looks to establish the run early and often. The play-calling reflects this objective: through six games, Northwestern has run the ball 227 times to just 164 pass attempts. Even after losing veteran tailback Cam Porter to the season, the running game remains the strength of Northwestern’s offense.

Caleb Komolafe gets the lion’s share of the carries now. A 5-11, 210-pound back, he’s a load to bring down, and he’s plunged into the end zone five times already. Joseph Himon II, a smaller, quicker back, gets some work behind him. Northwestern averages a respectable 4.8 yards per carry and 183.2 yards per carry, each good for seventh in the Big Ten. Quarterback Preston Stone won’t tuck it and run much, as he’s more of the pocket passer prototype.

For the second straight week, Purdue defended the run remarkably well. After holding Illinois to less than three yards per carry, Purdue held Minnesota to less than two last week. In fact, Minnesota seemingly abandoned the run due to lack of success, finishing the game with 18 rushes to 45 pass attempts. Purdue’s run defense stats improved greatly over the past two weeks, as the Boilermakers now rank in the top half of the FBS, allowing 129.3 rushing yards per game.

Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Purdue’s run defense improvement is that it’s happening without TJ Lindsey, arguably its best defensive tackle. Last week, Purdue achieved this without Jamarius Dinkins, who missed the game due to a dog bite on his foot. The UNLV transfer linebacking tandem of Mani Powell and Charles Correa continues to shine, and Alex Sanford joined the party last week as Purdue turned to many three-linebacker looks. Correa (third) and Powell (ninth) each rank inside the top 10 in the conference in tackles, while Myles Slusher and Tahj Ra-El don’t sit far behind from the safety position.

Northwestern passing game versus Purdue against the pass

The Wildcats turned to the transfer portal at the quarterback position, welcoming the SMU transfer, Stone, to Evanston. He threw for over 3,000 yards on his way to third-team All-AAC honors in 2023, but he lost his job during SMU’s run to the College Football Playoff last season. Through six games, his performance can best be described as a mixed bag. In three conference games, he’s yet to eclipse 163 passing yards, and six of his eight touchdown passes came against Western Illinois and ULM. On the positive side, he’s put together three straight clean performances after tossing four picks at Tulane and two against Oregon.

Nobody can question who the top receiver is at Northwestern. Griffin Wilde enters this week with more than double the receptions and more than triple the receiving yards of anyone else on the roster. The South Dakota State transfer immediately generated buzz upon his arrival, and he’s more than lived up to the hype. At 6-4, Hayden Eligon II presents a matchup issue on the outside, especially in the red zone. He’s scored a pair of touchdowns this season. Three other players enter with double digit receptions, including Himon, as Northwestern will involve the running backs in the passing game.

Although Purdue’s secondary took a notable step forward against Minnesota, the season-long numbers remain ugly. Purdue enters this week 103rd in the FBS, allowing 245.7 passing yards per contest. The return of Tony Grimes greatly helped the secondary, as it limited explosive plays through the air after USC, Notre Dame and Illinois each gashed Purdue on big plays.

Purdue forced its first interception of the season last week, as Slusher picked off a tipped pass. The defense must find a way to create more takeaways, though. Purdue’s -10 turnover margin ranks second-to-last in the FBS, with only Nevada and Florida Atlantic worse. The pass rush remains an issue. CJ Nunnally notched his fourth sack of the season, but aside from him, opposing quarterbacks get too much time to survey the landscape against Purdue’s defense. Against a passing attack that ranks 16th in the conference, Purdue will look to take another step forward.

Purdue running game versus Northwestern against the run

The run game impressed, as Purdue racked up 253 yards on the ground in Minneapolis. Boilermaker ball carriers found room to work with early and often. Devin Mockobee climbed into fourth place on the school’s all-time rushing list after a 98-yard performance. He continues to carry a massive share of the workload, as he’s carried the rock 102 times this season. Purdue’s other tailbacks have combined for a mere 34 attempts. The success of the last two weeks improved Purdue to 13th in the conference with 138 rushing yards per game, and Mockobee ranks 10th in rushing yards per game.

Purdue unleashed the quarterback run game with Malachi Singleton last week. After showing the look a time or two in past weeks, Singleton ran five times for 73 yards, including a 40-yard touchdown run on Purdue’s opening possession. Ryan Browne showcased his legs nicely, too, scrambling in several key situations to extend plays and move chains. Despite a questionable offensive line, the Minnesota game marked two weeks in-a-row where the Boilermaker ground game saw success. Can it make it three?

Northwestern ranks middle of the pack, coming in 71st nationally, allowing 145 rushing yards per game. For seemingly decades, a strong linebacker anchored the Northwestern defense, but that doesn’t seem to be the case this year. A safety, Robert Fitzgerald, leads the team in tackles, never a promising sign about a team’s run defense. Opponents average 4.7 yards per carry on the Wildcats, who generate less than four tackles for loss per game.

Michael Kilbane takes up space in the middle of the defensive line, and Chicagoland native Mac Uihlein can get into the backfield from the linebacker position. Northwestern’s brand of tough, physical football continues under David Braun, but the run defense doesn’t pack the same punch that it has in seasons past.

Purdue passing game versus Northwestern against the pass

Through six weeks, Browne’s season has seen its fair share of highs and lows. He’s delivered big-time plays with his arm and legs, but he’s tossed multiple back-breaking interceptions at critical junctures. Last week embodied this perfectly. He extended plays well, delivered on some downfield strikes, and scrambled for an impressive touchdown run, but the Gophers scored 10 points off his two interceptions, including the pick-six that gave Minnesota the lead. At the halfway mark, he’s completed 60% of his passes for 256 yards per game with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Another factor in Purdue’s loss at Minnesota: dropped passes. Pro Football Focus charged Purdue pass catchers with six dropped passes, including three by Corey Smith. Purdue leads the Big Ten in drop rate, an ominous sign for a team looking to steal wins as an underdog. The Boilermakers continue to miss the presence of top tight end George Burhenn, as the position lacks production without him. Michael Jackson and Nitro Tuggle form a nice top tandem on the outside, but Purdue will keep searching for consistency to join them. Could this mark the season debut of De’Nylon Morrissette?

The Wildcat defense enters inside the top 20 nationally in pass defense, allowing just 160 yards per game through the air. None of Northwestern’s six opponents has reached the 200-yard mark on the Cats, an impressive feat. Opponents complete just shy of 60% of passes and average just over six yards per attempt, both strong statistics.

Those numbers become even more impressive when considering Northwestern recorded only nine sacks in the first half of the season and has intercepted just three passes. Aidan Hubbard and Anto Saka each boast two sacks thus far, but it’s not a Northwestern defense that generates much pressure on the passer. And, it doesn’t create turnovers at a high clip. Through six games, it’s shown to be a defense that limits opponents well and takes advantage of shaky quarterback play.

Special teams

Spencer Porath snapped his streak of nine straight made field goals to begin the season when he missed a 48-yarder last week, but he’s remained excellent throughout the season’s first half. He’s made two of three tries from 40+ yards and nine out of 10 overall. Jack McCallister’s emergence as a weapon at punter gives Purdue an added dimension on special teams, too.

Purdue has only attempted eight kickoff returns and five punt returns this season. The Boilermakers take the approach to fair catch the ball and get the offense on the field, as they lack game-changing options at the return man spots.

Northwestern kicker Jack Olsen took over duties in the week two win over Western Illinois, making six of his seven tries since then. His one miss came on a blocked chip shot attempt, but his long is just 41 yards. In the temporary stadium on the lakeshore, he doesn’t get the easiest environment to kick in. Luke Akers handling the punting duties, and he’s done an excellent job thus far. He averages nearly 47 yards per boot, sending five of his 15 tries for 50+ yards.

Similar to Purdue, Northwestern won’t get aggressive in the return game. It’s only attempted four kickoff returns and eight punt returns on the season. The eight punt returns total 11 yards, though Himon did break off a 39-yard kick return.

Intangibles

There’s no sugar coating last week’s loss. The Boilermakers outplayed Minnesota for more than 50 minutes, nearly out-gaining the Gophers by 200 yards. In the end, though, the final score is all that matters, and Purdue came up short. Purdue lost its 14th straight game against power conference competition, and it extended its current losing streak to four games.

How does Purdue respond from a crushing defeat? That’s the challenge for Barry Odom and company this week. There’s no time to wallow in misery. Purdue gets a beatable Northwestern team on Saturday. How many more chances will Purdue get to add to the win column in 2025? After Northwestern and Rutgers, Purdue will enter its final four contests as significant underdogs. The pressure is on for what feels like a “must-win” type of game.

On the flip side, how does Northwestern handle the thrill of victory? The Wildcats stunned Penn State as a three-touchdown underdog last week, leading to the firing of James Franklin. Few expected much of Northwestern in 2025, but after three consecutive wins, the 4-2 Wildcats look like a possible bowl team. A win on Saturday would go a long way to earning a postseason spot, as a daunting closing stretch awaits Northwestern.

Saturday marks the final game at the temporary Martin Stadium. Northwestern will play its final two home games at Wrigley Field before the opening of the brand-new $862 million Ryan Field in 2026. The temporary setup creates a unique environment with minuscule crowds and harsh winds coming off Lake Michigan. Players must create their own energy in the muted environment.