NCAA Tournament Preview: #3 Purdue vs Utah State
INDIANAPOLIS —Purdue’s playing Sunday for a Sweet 16 trip to Detroit as it meets Mountain West champion Utah State in Indianapolis.
DETAILS: Sunday, March 24, 2024 | 2:40 p.m. ET | TV: CBS (Kevin Harlan, Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy, Andy Katz) | Radio: Purdue Radio Network
PURDUE (30-4): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS
UTAH STATE (28-6): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS
THREE THINGS ABOUT PURDUE
• Zach Edey‘s NCAA Tournament debut this season: 30 points and 21 rebounds. It was the first 30-20 NCAA game since Maryland’s Joe Smith in 1995.
• Purdue is now shooting 40.7 percent from three this season and has surged late in the season.
Fletcher Loyer is 12-of-16 the last six games, 6-for-7 in postseason play.
• A win would send Purdue to its seventh Sweet 16 under Matt Painter and its fifth out of its last seven tournament appearances. A Maui Invitational rematch with Gonzaga would await in Detroit.
A FEW THINGS ABOUT THIS GAME
• Utah State won the Mountain West — a six-bid league this season — with a 14-4 record. All the Aggies’ conference losses came against NCAA Tournament teams. Utah State was 6-4 this season against its fellow NCAA invitees during the regular season and in the MWC tournament.
The Aggies blew out TCU late Friday night to reach the Round of 32.
• Utah State averages 80 points per game and ranks top-30 nationally in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, an offense led by two very good guards in point guard Darius Brown and slashing wing Ian Martinez and a couple of uncommon weapons in burly perimeter-capable Mountain West Player of the Year Great Osobor and sweet-shooting 7-footer Isaac Johnson.
• The Aggies are just a 32-percent three-point-shooting team, but shoots 57 percent on two-point shots. To put that latter number in context, Purdue — with Zach Edey — shoots 53 percent from two-point range.
• Utah State opponents shoot only 29 percent from three, if three-point defense is actually a meaningful stat. Statistically, USU opponents are pretty efficient from two-point range and the Aggies don’t force many turnovers. How much of this stuff is Mountain West style of play, though?
• Osobor will play both forward and center. At the latter, he’d undoubtedly look to drive the ball at Edey if that’s how Purdue matches up. Might be one of those games where Purdue try to ID a non-shooter to assign Edey to to allow him to sit at the rim.
| TURNOVERS | BALL PRESSUE | THE 4 MEN |
| Not a lot of matchup-specific concerns here, but it’s more about Purdue than the opponent anyway. This is the worry that could end Purdue’s season at any time. | Purdue has to do a better job sticking to Utah State’s guards than it did Grambling’s. There are gaps in drop coverage that it’s up to the guards to steer the ball away from him. | Trey Kaufman-Renn and Mason Gillis vs. Great Osobor will be a key matchup at both ends of the floor, if that’s how Purdue matches up. Purdue will need to contain Osobor off the dribble and keep him off the glass, and make him guard them. |
GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREDICTION: PURDUE 85, UTAH STATE 72
Utah State’s going to have to deal with Edey on short prep. The way Purdue is shooting threes, it’s hard to envision the Aggies simply outscoring the Boilermakers, as long as they’re not turning the ball over. Rebounding, physical defense and the foul line really matter. Purdue should fare OK in those areas.
