Roundball Roundup

Purdue Roundball Roundup is a Boilermaker basketball-focused information and analysis clearinghouse posted periodically throughout the season, typically during breaks in the schedule.

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Fair or not, Purdue’s season will ultimately judged by what happens the remainder of this month. That’s the nature of the NCAA Tournament, particularly when you’ve endured some of the disappointments the Boilermakers have of late, with three straight losses to double-digit seeds, though people tend to forget one of those games was in the Sweet 16 and that opponent had previously beaten Kentucky.

But that’s the deal and the goal now is redemption, and then some.

But you can’t earn redemption without positioning yourself for it, and though the next three weeks will ultimately shape Purdue’s story, just being back in this position is a feat unto itself.

Last season was a storybook deal for Purdue.

It was Zach Edey‘s first season ever as the best player on a basketball team, any basketball team, and both the starting guards were freshmen. It was a rebuilding year, or at least a transition year. What’s the difference, though?

Anyway, this grand transition that came after Purdue lost two All-Americans (Jaden Ivey and Trevion Williams) from the season prior, along with a few other key contributors, it couldn’t have unfolded any more unbelievably.

Purdue won 29 games, starting with the PK85 event in Portland, moving on to Big Ten regular season and tournament titles, and ultimately a No. 1 seed to the NCAA Tournament, where the floor finally dropped out.

How many teams would be able to set that high a standard one season, fail, then put themselves right back in the same position 12 months later, with no discernible scarring from one of the worst losses in NCAA Tournament history affecting them adversely? The Big Ten wasn’t as good this season, but the Boilermakers’ non-conference schedule was even better.

Purdue enters this NCAA Tournament with 29 wins again, a Big Ten regular season title, the season’s premier MTE title (for arguably the third year in a row) and a No. 1 seed. The only thing missing from one year to the next is that Big Ten Tournament title, but that did nothing to diminish arguably the best résumé in college basketball.

Getting back to this very position won’t be the story this week when Purdue takes up in Gainbridge Fieldhouse to begin its redemption tour, but it should certainly be a story.

MARCH MAD?

Purdue wanted to win the Big Ten Tournament, but those ambitions were dashed by a one-point overtime loss to Wisconsin in Minneapolis. With that title off the table, to ultimately be scooped up by Illinois, Purdue was left to make the best of falling just short.

After Purdue lost at Northwestern in December — double overtime — it won its next seven games, including those against Arizona, Alabama and Illinois.

After it got buzz-sawed at Nebraska, it won nine straight, including several tough road games.

After a narrow loss at Ohio State, Purdue won its next six, including a win at currently top-10-ranked Illinois and a pair of wins over Michigan State.

Losing hasn’t happened often, but when it has, Purdue has always responded.

“Every loss sucks, but I feel like we learn from ’em,” senior Lance Jones said. “… We learn from our mistakes and try to come out next time with a different intensity and a different aggression.”

Now would be the time.

After those first three losses, Purdue won an average of 7.3 games in a row.

Now, the NCAA Tournament is a whole different animal, but there’s no reason to think Purdue isn’t capable of playing up to its seeding these next few weeks, with the Wisconsin loss maybe one day to be looked back on as a valuable poke.

“Everybody on this team knows who we are, win or loss,” Edey said. “But when you lose, you really want to prove it to everyone again, prove that, ‘We’re this team,’ that nothing has changed, that no one’s doubting who we are.”

There have been a few very distinct personality traits shown by this Purdue team all season.

For one, it takes things personally. Look what it did to Indiana this season after last season’s improbable IU sweep. Sweeping Michigan State and Illinois this season, those are opponents where things tend to get competitively heated.

Boilermaker players and coaches haven’t just not avoided the topic of last season’s March flameout, but have brought it up proactively, indicating a certain mettle toward righting that wrong. That’s personal.

Second, the confidence this team has shown all season. The consistent messaging after losses that can come off almost like a shrug of the shoulder. The phrase “We know we are” keeps coming up.

Here’s Fletcher Loyer after the loss at Northwestern in December talking about winning a national championship …

This is a wildly confident Purdue team, which can be attributed in part to experience and maturity, but also, Matt Painter frequently says, its three-point shooting, which ranks No. 2 nationally by percentage heading into the NCAA Tournament.

It does raise an interesting consideration: Is three-point shooting the product of confidence or the other way around. Or both?

Either way, that’s the biggest of many differences in this Purdue team.

Purdue’s season ended disastrously last season because it went 5-of-26 from three at the very worst moment, a bottoming out that wasn’t really outside that team’s profile.

This one? The Boilermakers are shooting 41 percent for the season from three-point range, not only much better than last season’s 33-ish but also fairly consistent and distinctly clutch. At worst, they’re a high-floor shooting team. At best, they’re the most lethal in the country.

Purdue has reason to be confident, but also reason to be mad, not just because of that Wisconsin loss but also because of the 12 months of angst that have built up.

PURDUE’S VULNERABILITIES

Last year, three-point shooting was the wild card for Purdue. That was was a consistent problem.

This year, there is just as acute a problem, though not one that shows up as consistently.

The Boilermakers’ greatest existential threat this season has been crystal clear. Turnovers, and their impact.

For the entire season, Purdue has averaged a dozen turnovers per game, not an outlandish number, but in losses, the number is 15.3.

Beyond that, in those four games, opponents have generated an average of 18.8 points off those turnovers, the difference in all those games, two of which went to overtime. For the season, opponents have averaged 12.6 points off turnovers, a sharp vulnerability often for teams that play through the post or otherwise prioritize the paint, due to the depth of the ball at the point of the turnover. (A side note: Wisconsin was the only game this season in which Purdue did not score off an opponent turnover.)

Turnovers are clearly — clearly — Purdue’s greatest threat, which is sort of a back-handed compliment considering they haven’t been an every-game demon, but there are other modest gaps that show up from time to time.

It goes without saying that Zach Edey being on the floor is essential, so foul trouble would be problematic. Purdue has been able to be productive offensively, one way or another, without him, but really struggles to protect the rim on defense without him. Breaking news: Edey is important.

Additionally, the foul line has been a bit up and down for Purdue. The Boilermakers are a 72-percent free-throw-shooting team, which is OK, but just OK. It does leaves a good deal of meat on the bone for a team built to get to the stripe. Zach Edey’s immense volume puts the overall numbers at the mercy of his shooting. He’s at 71.6 percent for the season, sub-70-percent shooting in Big Ten play bogging down a blistering run during non-conference play.

Furthermore, the one-and-one hasn’t been particularly kind to Purdue down the final stretch.

PURDUE OPPONENTS IN THE FIELD

A final look at the teams Purdue played this season who made the field and their seeding.

Northwestern (1-1) 9 seed
Illinois (2-0) 3 seed
Morehead State (W) 14 seed
Michigan State (2-0) 9 seed
Alabama (W) 4 seed
Arizona (W) 2 seed
Nebraska (L) 8 seed
Wisconsin (2-1) 5 seed
Marquette (W) 2 seed
Gonzaga (W) 5 seed
Samford (W) 13 seed
Tennessee (W) 2 seed