Six keys to six Purdue football wins in 2025

Prognosticators don’t expect Purdue to win many games in 2025. Purdue enters the season as a consensus 18th-place finisher in the 18-team Big Ten. Bet MGM offers Purdue’s regular season win total at a mere 3.5 wins, with juice heavily to the “under.”

Twice in recent memory, however, Purdue punched above its weight class to reach a bowl game in year one of a new coaching staff despite low expectations.

In 1997, Joe Tiller’s squad snapped a 12-year bowl drought, finishing 9-3 with an Alamo Bowl victory. Jeff Brohm walked into a program that won just nine total games in the prior four years and led the Boilermakers to a 7-6 record and Foster Farms Bowl win in 2017.

Can Barry Odom recreate some of the year one magic against a daunting slate of opponents? Here are six keys to Purdue wildly outperforming expectations and reaching the postseason for the first time since 2022.

START STRONG

Purdue must keep two historical trends alive in the first two weeks. First, Purdue must remain unbeaten against Ball State. Although the two schools share a telephone area code, they’ve met just eight times on the gridiron. The Cardinals still await their first win over Purdue, though the two last met 15 years ago.

Second, Purdue must remain unbeaten against FCS foes. Purdue holds a 14-0 record against the FCS dating back to when the two split apart in 1978. Southern Illinois will come to town in week two for the second time ever. Purdue took down the Salukis 35-13 in 2014.

With a daunting schedule ahead, Purdue simply cannot afford to fall to a lower-level foe if it wishes to outperform expectations and make a bowl game in 2025.

BIG OCTOBER

Where could Purdue pick off some opponents? The month of October looms large. Purdue’s schedule in October: Illinois, at Minnesota, at Northwestern, Rutgers. While Purdue projects as an underdog in each contest, they look like some of the better opportunities to win a Big Ten game for the first time since the 2023 season finale against Indiana.

Illinois enters the season with sky-high expectations, but the Illini nearly lost on their home field to Purdue in a wild overtime shootout a season ago. PJ Fleck continues to field solid teams in Minneapolis, but they’re far from the Big Ten’s best. The transfer portal era doesn’t help Northwestern, whose admission requirements handicap its ability to bolster its roster each offseason. And, while Greg Schiano has Rutgers operating at its highest level since joining the conference, it still remains near the basement of the Big Ten.

How many wins can Purdue steal in October? It feels like two would be the minimum if Purdue wishes to play into December.

THE QUARTERBACK

Simply put: Purdue cannot outperform expectations if it doesn’t get solid quarterback play. The competition remains in the second week of preseason practices. Who will earn the job? Ryan Browne, Evans Chuba, Bennett Meredith and Malachi Singleton each hope to hear their name called first when Purdue opens the season against Ball State.

The Boilermaker coaching staff wants to run the ball, and the quarterback will play a major role in that. But, against a schedule as challenging as Purdue’s, the offense must be multi-faceted. Purdue will need to push the ball downfield to keep the defense honest.

Who offers Purdue the best chance to challenge the defense vertically? The jury remains out, as each quarterback offers limited in-game experience. No matter who earns the job, questions remain at the most important position on the field.

BRAND NEW ROSTER MESHING

82 of Purdue’s 119 players did not play football for Purdue in 2024. Roster turnover like that seemed impossible just a few short years ago, but it may become a positive for the 2025 Boilermakers.

Odom remained adamant at Big Ten Media Days that he, his coaching staff and the majority of his players had nothing to do with the catastrophic 1-11 season last fall. It’s a blank slate in West Lafayette.

At UNLV, Odom saw a substantial roster overhaul in both of his seasons. He’s no stranger to putting teams together in a short amount of time, and he did so successfully in Sin City. Now, he gets the task of performing this type of overhaul at the power conference level. For Purdue to reach the six-win mark, he’ll need Purdue to operate like a well-oiled machine early on.

CLOSE GAME FORTUNES

A little luck can go a long way. Purdue didn’t get much close game luck last season, falling twice in overtime (Illinois, Northwestern) and in another one-possession game (Michigan State). While there’s plenty to be said about creating your own luck, sometimes the oblong spheroid can bounce in funny ways and flip a game.

Plus, in close games, the pressure won’t be on Purdue. As the Boilermakers project as an underdog in their final 10 games, they’ll get the chance to play loose and pressure-free. As the old saying goes, there’s nothing more dangerous than a team with nothing to lose.

SPECIAL TEAMS AND PENALTIES

The game’s third phase often gets overlooked. After all, far more snaps come on offense and defense. Anecdotally, though, special teams blunders tend to become amplified.

Purdue struggled mightily on special teams last season. Just nine of 15 field goal attempts went through the uprights, the return game made little impact, and mental mistakes proved all too common. While Keelan Crimmins became Purdue’s best punter in years, he’s off to Illinois, and Purdue will start fresh there.

And, Purdue often looked the part of an undisciplined team, something that tends to blend into special teams. The Boilermakers averaged 51.80 penalty yards per game, a number that needs improved upon in 2025.

The little things add up quickly when a team looks to outperform expectations. For Purdue to prove the oddsmakers and prognosticators wrong, it can’t allow minor mistakes to stack up and put it behind the proverbial eight ball on a weekly basis.

2025 Purdue football schedule

Date	Opponent
Aug. 30	Ball State, Noon ET, BTN
Sept. 6	Southern Illinois, 7:30 p.m. ET, BTN
Sept. 13	USC, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Sept. 20	at Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Sept. 27	BYE
Oct. 4	Illinois
Oct. 11	at Minnesota, 7/7:30 p.m. ET, TV TBA
Oct. 18	at Northwestern
Oct. 25	Rutgers, Noon ET, TV TBA
Nov. 1	at Michigan
Nov. 8	Ohio State
Nov. 15	at Washington
Nov. 22	BYE
Nov. 28	Indiana, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC (Friday)