Analytics Corner: The good, the bad, and the indicative for South Carolina

The South Carolina Gamecocks put together a strong performance against an overmatched Kentucky team to move to 3-2 heading. While the Gamecocks are self-scouting during their bye week, we’re taking the opportunity to do the same, looking at what’s working, what’s not, and what’s not quite settled through five games. In this analytics corner, we’re looking back so we can look forward.

Data Check-In: Where Does South Carolina Rank in Advanced Metrics?

We’re going to check in with our advanced metrics before getting to a few thoughts and stats about South Carolina’s play.

SP+

Bill Connelly’s SP+ punished the Gamecocks for a slow start to the season, but after South Carolina smashed SP+’s expectations against Kentucky, is the metric back on board with the Gamecocks?

Well… Maybe.

The Gamecocks moved up 5.3 points in SP+, moving from 50th to 35th, the biggest jump in the Power Four. Was it simply because of one decent win?

Well, no. Vanderbilt moved up five spots to 11th, and Missouri moved up seven spots to seventh (Second in the SEC). South Carolina lost by multiple scores to each team, but with those teams rising in the rankings, and to a lesser extent, Virginia Tech improving, the Gamecocks got a boost to their early-season strength of schedule.

The Gamecock defense improved by three points, while the offense improved by 2.3 points (up 11 spots).

Kelley Ford

The Gamecocks also rose the most of any SEC team in Kelley Ford’s rankings, moving up to 33rd from 49th. The Gamecocks also gained 0.6 projected conference wins and have a greater than 50% chance to make a bowl game. They have a 51st-percentile offense, an 88th-percentile defense (Up from 81st), and a 77th-percentile special teams unit.

Kelley Ford still sees it as an uphill battle for the Gamecocks to get to where they want to be, but with Oklahoma, Clemson, LSU, and Ole Miss all falling in the rankings, South Carolina’s season outlook got a bit brighter in the eyes of the forward-facing metric.

Midseason Check-in: The Good, the Bad, and the Indicative

I’m breaking things down into three categories: the good, the bad, and the indicative.

There are a couple of key notes here, so hear these first. First, good and bad are self-explanatory: things the Gamecocks have consistently done well and things they’ve consistently done poorly. But I used indicative as the third category. It’s a bit of a nerdy play on words. In grammar, an indicative is when a verb is stated as a fact. For example, “barks” in the sentence, “The dog barks.”

Also See: How On3 Ranks South Carolina’s Top Players

Elsewhere, indicative simply means to indicate something. For the final category, I’m combining those two uses. These are statements of fact (stats) that are indicative of how the team plays. Stated plainly, “When the Gamecocks do this well, they usually win. When they do this poorly, they usually lose.”

Finally, I’m categorizing these elements of play relative to preseason expectations. It’s easy to say LaNorris Sellers has been good, but we knew that before the year, and that fact doesn’t move the needle regarding the outlook for the rest of the season. Similarly, there have been areas fans expected to find success, but where the Gamecocks haven’t delivered. The opposite is also true, South Carolina is getting production in some places that some people didn’t expect.

The Good

Downfield Passing

If you’re a regular reader of this column, this should come as no surprise. LaNorris Sellers has been simply outstanding when pushing the ball down the field. In 37 attempts beyond 10 yards, Sellers has completed 67.6% of his passes, for 629 yards (25.2 yards per attempt) and seven touchdowns. Sellers has thrown for a first down on 62.2% of his attempts beyond 10 yards and has an adjusted completion percentage of 73%.

Sellers is fourth in average depth of target on deep balls, meaning he’s not throwing it right at 20 yards, but he’s launching it down the field, and it’s working. His 138.4 passer rating on balls 20+ yards down the field is third in the Power Four.

It’s not just the bombs, though. Sellers leads the country in completion percentage and yards per attempt on intermediate throws (Between 10 and 20 air yards). In fact, he’s completed 14-straight passes of 10-20 air yards, dating back to the end of the South Carolina State game.

Special Teams Newcomers

Since South Carolina hasn’t played many close games, and since Vacari Swain has been hogging the special teams spotlight, it’s been easy to miss that South Carolina’s special teams units have been solid in the ordinary.

William Joyce has been excellent, connecting on four of five field goals and all 16 extra points. The lone miss was a 45-yarder against South Carolina State after a sack (OG readers may recall that longer kicks after sacks have low conversion rates. It’s the reason people were deceived into thinking Parker White wasn’t going to be good after a slow start in his freshman season.)

While no Kai Kroeger, Mason Love has been above average as a punter, ranking in the top 25 in net punting among Power Four punters, landing six inside the 20, and allowing just four returns on 20 attempts, for a total of 12 yards.

Max Kelley’s kickoff numbers are interesting. He’s 59th in yards per kickoff, has the 14th-highest return percentage, and is one of just six kickoff specialists with as many returns allowed as touchbacks.

It sounds bad, except for a few things: We’ve seen him boom the occasional kick out of the end zone, his hang time is one of the highest in the country, and opponents’ starting field position off of kickoffs is eighth lowest in the Power Four. Part of it is the coverage unit, but Kelley is succeeding on kickoffs in an unconventional way.

Given that all three of those positions were question marks coming into the season, South Carolina has to feel good about its chances in close, field-position-dependent games.

The Bad

Running Game

I know, you’re shocked. But South Carolina’s inability to find success in the traditional running game has been the shocking thing here. It’s not just the offensive line (though it has not been good in this phase of the game), as the tight ends and lead blockers haven’t done well in the running game.

Some of it is on the backs, not hitting holes with conviction or even going down a bit too easily at times. That being said, the blocking hasn’t been pretty. South Carolina’s running backs have 73 yards before contact on 108 carries, per PFF, just 0.68 yards before contact per carry. SEC StatCat is a bit more optimistic, crediting the Gamecock backs with 144 yards before contact, with both Oscar Adaway and Raisul Faison being credited with nearly a yard more before contact per rush than on PFF.

Insider Report: Recruiting Scoop From the Road

There may be some positives here. Against Kentucky, South Carolina had just one negative run. Ironically, the success rate was lower than in the previous three FBS games (17% versus 30%), but the Gamecocks faced far more favorable downs and distances after “unsuccessful” runs than in previous games (Think more second-and-sixes and fewer second-and-10s).

Getting Sellers slightly more involved in the called running game has helped. He’s averaging 2.5 yards before contact per called run, with a 63% success rate. Getting just 2-3 more called runs from Sellers, whether in the zone read or through some power and sweep concepts like late last season, could help the running game out significantly.

One other note: South Carolina is averaging two yards before contact with three or more receivers on the field. Some of that is situational (Success rate is low because several such runs have been made when behind the chains), but it does seem like the Gamecocks are finding some running lanes against lighter boxes. That’s just something to file away for later.

Penalties:

I almost put this in the last category, but the Gamecocks have been quite undisciplined throughout the year, having overcome some penalty woes to win against Virginia Tech. The Gamecocks have averaged 74.8 penalty yards per game after averaging 57.3 last season. They’ve averaged 8.8 penalties per game after averaging 6.6 last year. Both of those numbers dipped against Kentucky, but it’s not enough of a sample size to declare that the problem is fixed.

After all, discipline is easier when up 20 than down 20.

The Gamecocks aren’t committing many “agreeable” penalties, the kind the staff can live with in the heat of a play. Instead, it’s been plenty of pre- and post-snap infractions–the kind that are completely avoidable.

The Indicative

Tackling:

Per PFF, South Carolina’s defense has missed 48 tackles this season. Half of those came in the two losses, while another five came from players who saw their only action against South Carolina State. The Gamecock defense missed 15 total tackles against Virginia Tech and Kentucky, while allowing less than 2.7 yards per carry after contact (Most offenses average between 3.25 and 3.75 yards per carry after contact).

I like to use statistics/my analytical brain to project forward rather than focusing on the past. When it has struggled, the Gamecock defense hasn’t had coverage busts or defensive breakdowns. Instead, it’s been an inability to get guys on the ground, something that has not been a consistent problem.

I’m willing to chalk the struggles against Vanderbilt and Missouri up to game flow issues. Against Vanderbilt, the Gamecocks played a backup quarterback for half the game, getting worn down by a high success-rate offense. Against Missouri, the time of possession numbers were lopsided, and the guy on pace to beat all but Ashton Jeanty in single-season forced missed tackles since 2013 ran wild.

South Carolina doesn’t face another running back, outside of Ole Miss’ Kewan Lacy, who currently sits inside the top 100 in forced missed tackles. I just don’t think we’ll sit here in a month bemoaning the tackling.

A few other nuggets: Brandon Cisse leads all college corners in run stops (9) and run stop percentage (7.8%).

He’s one of seven South Carolina players in the top 20 in the SEC in run stop percentage. I think the run defense will be just fine going forward, especially against teams like LSU, Oklahoma, and Clemson that might be as poor on the ground as the Gamecocks.

Pass Protection:

I apparently made some people angry when I tweeted about South Carolina’s pass-blocking tackles.

Per PFF, South Carolina's offensive tackles allowed no pressures on Saturday. It's the first time that has happened against an FBS opponent since…

Well, I'm in 2019 right now, I'll tell you when I find the last time.

— Will Helms (@whelms21) September 29, 2025

In case you’re not a Twitter person, I eventually found the answer, as Corey Robinson and Brandon Shell allowed no pressure in South Carolina’s 2014 Independence Bowl win over Miami. That’s per PFF. People can argue all they want with those over at PFF, but Josiah Thompson and Tree Babalade kept Sellers clean against Kentucky, per the charters.

Whether that’s truly the case or not is mostly irrelevant to me. What is relevant is that the woes in the running game have jaded fans toward the pass protection, which has been a quiet positive.

LaNorris Sellers invites a lot of pressure. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. He’s a high average depth of target passer who prefers to hang in and deliver under pressure rather than run a bunch of quick-hitters. He’s been charged with primary responsibility for six of the 14 sacks South Carolina has allowed this season and bears partial responsibility for 21% of allowed pressures, fourth-highest in the SEC (Again, not always a bad thing; Taylen Green and Beau Pribula are higher, both similar quarterbacks).

Also See: Details You May Have Missed Against Kentucky

Sellers has the highest average time with the ball of any SEC quarterback (3.29 seconds), with the third-highest time to release (2.79 sec.), sixth-highest time to sack (3.79 sec.), and fifth-highest time to LOS on scrambles (5.37 sec.). He holds the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds 69.6% of the time, the highest in the conference (but has a 124.0 passer rating on those throws, so it works).

The bottom line is that South Carolina’s current offense is never going to avoid sacks, regardless of personnel.

Still, Josiah Thompson bears partial responsibility for just eight pressures this season, while the revolving door at right tackle has allowed only six (just 15.2% of pressured dropbacks). The interior of the line has been hit-or-miss, but that pressure is generally easier to avoid than edge pressure.

It’s indicative of how the Gamecocks play, though, because of those 14 edge pressures allowed, nine came against Missouri. Take out that game, and the tackles have been excellent in pass protection.

Unlike the running back position, the schedule of edge rushers is more foreboding. South Carolina’s chances down the stretch rely heavily on how Thompson, Tree Babalade, Cason Henry, or whoever else the Gamecocks roll out at tackle can play against quality opponents.

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