Nordin Kapic beyond the film: The stats behind South Carolina's transfer forward

South Carolina basketball transfer commit Nordin Kapic is going from coast to coast again. Originally from Vienna, Austria, Kapic spent the first two seasons of his collegiate career at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, at the D-II level. Last season, he ventured to the Pacific coast to play for UC-San Diego. Kapic started 33 of 34 games played for the Tritons and was fifth on the team with 25.0 MPG. Now, he’s going back (close to at least) the Atlantic to suit up for Lamont Paris.

In his first season with Lynn, Kapic started all but one game and averaged 19.3 PPG. The forward had career-best games as a freshman against Barry. On January 14, 2023, Kapic scored a season-high 31 points against the Buccaneers. Less than a month later, he tallied a season-high 17 rebounds against them. After three single-digit performances in his first six games with Lynn, Kapic found his rhythm. He scored 10-plus points in each of his last 19 appearances as a freshman. In that span, Kapic also recorded 12 double-doubles, including a 29-point, 16-rebound performance against Rollins.

In his sophomore season with Lynn, Kapic saw a similar role but became more efficient from deep. After a 37.1 3PT% as a freshman, his mark from beyond the arc rose to 41.3% the next season. However, his 2PT% fell from 57.0% to 53.4% as a sophomore. It wasn’t a varied sample size situation, as he took exactly 251 two-point attempts in both seasons. Keeping with the trend, Kapic again averaged 19.3 PPG as a sophomore.

On the defensive side of the ball, Kapic upped his block rate from 0.4 BPG to 1.0 BPG. After fouling out three times as a freshman, Kapic didn’t once hit the five-foul mark as a sophomore. Last season with UCSD, he only fouled out once. At the line, Kapic stayed steady. As a freshman, he had a 75.0 FT%, and raised it ever so slightly to a 75.8% mark his sophomore year. With the Tritons, he kept in around the same range as well, shooting 74.8%. It’s probably a safe bet to assume Nordin Kapic is going to make about three of every four free-throw attempts in Columbia.

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After two years in Florida, Kapic made the jump to mid-major D-I basketball. But make no mistake: the Big West conference consistently churns out quality teams. The Tritons were no exception last season, and Kapic was a big reason why. UCSD was one of just 10 teams this past season with 30 wins to their name.

Kapic had nine games of three-plus threes last season. That includes a performance against Cal State Bakersfield in which he hit seven shots from beyond the arc. South Carolina hit a combined 20 threes from players 6’8″ and taller last season. Kapic alone had 54 with the Tritons. However, he wasn’t as efficient as with Lynn, shooting just 30.7% from three.

His defense did translate to the D-I level. Kapic led the Tritons with a 2.2% block rate. He was also second on the team, only to Maximo Milovich in rebounding percentage. Offensively, he wasn’t the most efficient shooter, however. His TS% of 52.6% was the lowest of any player on the team who played in at least three games. Ironically, that mark would have placed him 4th on South Carolina this past season, behind only Collin Murray-Boyles, Nick Pringle, and Morris Ugusuk.

Partially, the low percentage was due to Kapic’s 2PT% dropping again once at a higher level of competition. After a 53.4 2PT% as a sophomore at Lynn, it fell to 51.3% with UCSD. Additionally, Kapic had the only sub-50.0 eFG% on the Tritons this past season.

But he has been adept at getting to the line. Kapic averaged 7.5 FTA per 100 possessions last season, second on the Tritons. A consistently good free-throw shooter, he made 2.4 attempts per game. Only three Gamecocks averaged multiple free-throw makes per game. All of them are departing, meaning Kapic is filling somewhat of a void in that context.

Despite the struggles statistically, Kapic has had performances that much better reflect his true talent. Besides the aforementioned seven threes against CSUB, he had 16 points and eight rebounds against Cal Poly, adding two blocks. Against Michigan in the NCAA tournament, a team that eventually went to the Sweet Sixteen and gave Auburn a scare, Kapic put up 15 points and eight rebounds, along with three assists.

Where Kapic’s value primarily stems from are two concepts: defense and spacing. His defensive rating of 93.7 was 5th in the Big West last season. Kapic was also top 10 in defensive win shares in the conference.

But as far as spacing goes, the simple ability to hit a three is invaluable, especially to a Lamont Paris offense. Last season, neither of the South Carolina starting big men could reliably hit a three. But Kapic, even though he’s likely to be in a key bench role, can do that. With his shooting (41.3 3PT% as a sophomore at Lynn), opposing defenses can’t simply leave Kapic open on the perimeter. Last season, that was an issue for South Carolina, as defenses didn’t have to worry about CMB or Pringle hitting threes reliably.

It keeps with a trend of pickups from the portal that Lamont Paris has secured. Of the three forwards that Paris snatched from the transfer portal, all three have had three-point rates of 36.0% or higher for a season at some point in their college careers. Paris’s offensive scheme values spreading the ball around and creating open looks at the expense of the shot clock. Forcing defenses to keep a man on each shooter at all times wears down opponents and allows a team to get, in theory, the most efficient looks. It works like a river, gradually but surely meandering through, like the Colorado carving the Grand Canyon.

Kapic, like the rest of the portal pickups, isn’t the flashy, million-dollar NIL spend. But he’s the right puzzle piece for the Paris scheme. While his stats don’t jump off the page, he’ll certainly have a role on the court, similar to Hayden Brown in the 2022-23 season, but taller.

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