Analytics guru's best-case and worst-case projections for South Carolina basketball this season

South Carolina basketball holds the dubious distinction of sweeping the SEC media and SEC coaches’ preseason 16th-place predictions. Lamont Paris’ crew earned those last-place predictions following a disappointing 2024-2025 season in which they won just two conference games.

The vibe around the Gamecock program is much more optimistic than the national consensus. According to coaches and players in Columbia, if things go well for Carolina this winter, they will compete in the SEC once again.

One national analyst, advanced stats guru Evan Miyakawa, sees a path to that happening, even if it’s a small one.

This week, Miyakawa released his preseason “ceiling and floor outcomes” numbers. Miyakawa oversaw 10,000 simulations of the 2025-2026 season based on his preseason analytics model. Then, he took the 95th-percentile outcome (ceiling), 5th-percentile outcome (floor), and most-likely outcome (median) to create each program’s best-case, worst-case, and most-likely outcomes for this season.

For South Carolina, Miyakawa’s ceiling is finishing the regular season as the 47th-best team in America. The floor, though, is as low as No. 209. The Gamecocks’ median outcome (104th) is 10 spots lower than Miyakawa’s personal ranking for the team (94th).

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As expected, all of those numbers are the lowest in the SEC, though Miyakawa ranked the SEC as the best conference in college basketball.

However, the No. 47 ceiling is a respectable number. In fact, that number is typically for an NCAA Tournament team. The lowest at-large bid from the 2024-2025 Big Dance was No. 65, Utah State.

Carolina’s preseason No. 94 ranking (and the median of 104 and floor of 209) isn’t enough to be in NCAA Tournament contention. However, a ceiling of 47th indicates that Miyakawa’s data sees a path for Gamecock success in year four of the Lamont Paris era in Columbia.

On the flip side of the ceiling-floor discussion, a No. 209 finish would mean South Carolina would be one of the worst teams in SEC history. For reference, even the 0-18 2023-2024 Missouri Tigers finished 115th in Miyakawa’s rankings. Though USC was picked last in the conference, an all-time poor season like that is not something most analysts project for the Gamecocks.

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The EvanMiya ratings place South Carolina 94th overall. That is 33 spots lower than the SEC’s 15th team, the LSU Tigers. Miyakawa ranks the Gamecocks 113th on offense, 86th on defense, and 90th in roster talent.

The regular season begins in less than two weeks for South Carolina. The Gamecocks will host the North Carolina A&T Aggies at Colonial Life Arena on Tuesday, November 4th. Tip-off is set for 7:00 p.m. The game will not be on traditional television, but SEC Network+ will stream the action.

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