Checking in on ESPN's updated FPI ranking for South Carolina

South Carolina dropped a close game to Alabama this weekend to move to 3-5 overall and 1-5 in SEC play. The defeat was the Gamecocks’ fifth in six games.

However, the close loss didn’t affect Shane Beamer’s team much in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) power rankings.

USC slipped just one spot from last week. Now No. 40 overall, South Carolina is 14th in the SEC, ahead of only the Mississippi State Bulldogs (44) and Kentucky Wildcats (53). The Virginia Tech Hokies (69) and Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (119) are the other two teams on the schedule below the Gamecocks. (South Carolina State is an FCS team, so they do not have an FPI rating.)

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Similar to the slight drop in FPI standing, South Carolina didn’t experience much movement in this week’s update to the FPI efficiency metrics.

Offensively, Carolina dropped three spots from No. 89 nationally to No. 92. For the eighth time in eight games this season, the Gamecocks failed to reach 350 yards of offense and didn’t score more than 22 offensive points. The game was one of the better offensive performances of the year for Mike Shula’s unit, but it was far from great.

On the other side of the football, defensive coordinator Clayton White and his unit were good. Bouncing back from a tough day against Oklahoma, the South Carolina D dominated for most of the game before a less-than-ideal final 10 minutes. Following the Alabama game, the Gamecocks are now No. 27 in the country defensively.

Joe DeCamillis’ special teams groups had a really good day in some facets but struggled in others. A missed field goal and a kickoff out of bounds hurt the team, but three made field goals, a muffed punt recovery, and solid coverage efforts helped balance the scales. This week, South Carolina remains a top 10 national group in terms of special teams efficiency. The Gamecocks shifted down one spot from ninth to No. 10.

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South Carolina’s odds of reaching six wins and traditional bowl eligibility is at a season-low. According to the FPI, the Gamecocks have just an 18.7% chance of doing so. That mirrors most national bowl projections, as USC fell out of those conversations over the past couple of weeks.

With that bleak prediction, ESPN’s model also projects a final record of 4.9-7.1 for the Gamecocks.

The worldwide leader considers South Carolina a slight favorite over the rival Clemson Tigers and a heavy favorite over the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. Even so, based on the predictive numbers, ESPN thinks a loss to Clemson is more likely than a win over Ole Miss or Texas A&M in the next two games. USC is a heavy underdog in both of those contests.

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South Carolina has two more matchups in their five-game stretch against ranked opponents. The next two are both top-12 FPI teams. Ole Miss is No. 12 nationally, and Texas A&M is No. 8. After the conclusion of conference play, the Gamecocks will face off against Coastal Carolina (No. 119) and Clemson (No. 39).

This Saturday’s road contest against Lane Kiffin’s Rebels will pit Carolina against the No. 13 national offense, No. 61 defense, and No. 24 special teams. Ole Miss is No. 21 overall in FPI efficiency, 30 spots better than South Carolina’s No. 51 ranking.

Saturday’s game will kick off at 7:00 p.m. (Eastern). ESPN will carry the broadcast, while the ESPN app will stream the on-field action.

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