Despite fifth consecutive loss, South Carolina moved up in ESPN FPI rankings

On Saturday afternoon, South Carolina football lost on the road in College Station, falling to the No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies, 31-30. The Gamecocks lost in a nearly unfathomable way, giving up 28 unanswered points after jumping ahead 30-3. The defeat was USC’s fifth in a row and seventh in the last eight games.

Despite the gut-wrenching collapse, South Carolina’s placement in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) moved up significantly, largely thanks to the team’s dominant first half.

From last week, the Gamecocks leapt forward 11 spots. Now No. 29 overall, South Carolina is 12th in the SEC, ahead of the Kentucky Wildcats (33), Florida Gators (34), Arkansas Razorbacks (41), and Mississippi State Bulldogs (48).

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Similar to the rise in FPI standing, South Carolina moved up in all of the FPI’s efficiency metric rankings.

Shane Beamer’s team is No. 92 in the FPI offensive efficiency metrics, two spots higher than the previous week. The improvement stems from season-best numbers in total yards (388) and offensive points (23) under interim playcaller Mike Furrey. However, the numbers didn’t move up much because of an abysmal second half. The Gamecocks didn’t score a point and registered just 76 yards of offense following the intermission.

The Carolina defense was really good for two quarters before an awful ending. However, thanks in part to four forced turnovers, the Gamecocks’ D ascended six spots to No. 20 in the country. Clayton White’s unit also limited the Aggies to just 64 rushing yards and 2-for-11 on third down.

Joe DeCamillis’ special teams groups had an up-and-down day. William Joyce made all of his kicks. Mason Love posted good numbers–and had a punt downed at the 1-yard line thanks to a tremendous effort from Nyck Harbor and Gerald Kilgore–but had a couple of less-than-stellar punts that benefited from friendly rolls. Kickoff coverage and punt coverage weren’t very good, though a penalty kept the kick coverage numbers solid. Despite the mediocre day, USC moved up a spot from sixth to fifth nationally in special teams efficiency.

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South Carolina has officially been mathematically eliminated from reaching traditional bowl eligibility, and the only way the Gamecocks have a postseason future is if the team wins its two remaining games and receives an atypical five-win invitation. For much of the last month, the FPI’s record predictor and six-win odds have been low on the team’s chances of doing enough to earn a spot in a bowl game.

Now, with the Texas A&M loss in the books, ESPN’s model projects a 4.5-7.5 final record for the Gamecocks. That includes one game viewed as a near “guarantee” by the FPI and one virtual pick ’em.

With just those two games remaining on the schedule, South Carolina is actually ahead of both remaining opponents in the current iteration of the FPI. This weekend, the Gamecocks will face off against the No. 111 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. Then, in the final contest, Carolina will do battle with the No. 30 Clemson Tigers.

The worldwide leader considers South Carolina a heavy favorite over the Chanticleers. At the time of this writing, ESPN’s FPI Matchup Predictor gives the Gamecocks a 94.2% chance of victory. USC is favored over Clemson, with ESPN giving the home team 57.2% odds inside Williams-Brice Stadium to end the regular season.

When the Gamecocks take the field this Saturday, they will hold the advantage in all of the FPI’s efficiency categories. Tim Beck’s squad ranks No. 102 in overall efficiency, No. 114 on offense, No. 79 on defense, and No. 19 on special teams.

Kickoff for Saturday’s Palmetto State showdown has been set for 4:15 p.m. SEC Network will carry the television broadcast, while the ESPN app makes the action available via streaming.

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