South Carolina's place in ESPN's Football Power Index suggests Gamecocks better than record

On Saturday afternoon, South Carolina football demolished the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Williams-Brice Stadium. The 51-7 win was, arguably, the best offensive and defensive effort of the entire season. The home victory ended a five-game losing streak and moved USC’s overall record to 4-7.

Despite playing against a non-power conference opponent, South Carolina’s placement in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) moved up again.

From last week, the Gamecocks leapt forward two spots. Now No. 27 overall, South Carolina is 12th in the SEC, ahead of the Arkansas Razorbacks (37), Kentucky Wildcats (38), Florida Gators (41), and Mississippi State Bulldogs (48).

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Similar to the rise in FPI standing, South Carolina moved up in two of the three FPI efficiency metric rankings.

Shane Beamer’s team is now No. 78 in the FPI offensive efficiency metrics, 14 spots higher than last week. The improvement stems from season-best numbers in total yards (579) and offensive points (51) under interim playcaller Mike Furrey. While there will be a full offensive coordinator search (one that could include Furrey), the offense has looked much better since the dismissal of previous playcaller Mike Shula.

The Carolina defense has been solid all year and was really good on Saturday. Though the Gamecocks didn’t register a shutout, the defense gave up zero points; Coastal picked up a special teams touchdown on a blocked punt. The South Carolina D shifted forward two spots to No. 18 in this week’s FPI defensive efficiency rankings.

Broyles Award nominee Joe DeCamillis has led a special teams group that has been really good in some areas but fairly average in others. Even so, the FPI metrics like the Gamecocks’ third phase a lot. USC ranks No. 7 nationally in special teams efficiency. However, that represents a two-spot fall from the previous week, likely due to the team allowing the blocked punt.

Those numbers indicate that South Carolina is a better team than the record indicates. The Gamecocks are one of two teams with four or fewer wins in the FPI top 40. USC is ahead of 42 other power conference programs, including four of the six teams still mathematically in the running for the ACC Championship.

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South Carolina has officially been mathematically eliminated from reaching traditional bowl eligibility, and the only way the Gamecocks have a postseason future is if the team beats Clemson on Saturday and receives an atypical five-win invitation. For much of the last two months, the FPI’s record predictor and six-win odds had been low on the team’s chances of doing enough to earn a spot in a bowl game.

Now, with 11 games in the books, ESPN’s model projects a 4.6-7.4 final record for the Gamecocks. That implies that South Carolina is a slight favorite in this year’s Palmetto Bowl.

The worldwide leader considers South Carolina a moderate favorite over Clemson. At the time of this writing, ESPN’s FPI Matchup Predictor gives Shane Beamer’s team a 63.5% chance of victory. Most betting outlets, including BetMGM, list USC as a 2.5-point favorite.

The FPI numbers back that up. Carolina is ahead of its in-state rival in overall Football Power Index Rating, overall efficiency, defensive efficiency, and special teams efficiency.

At the time of this writing, Clemson slots in at No. 33 overall, No. 51 in total efficiency, No. 50 in offensive efficiency, No. 44 in defensive efficiency, and No. 98 on special teams.

Kickoff for Saturday’s Palmetto Bowl showdown has been set for noon. SEC Network will carry the television broadcast, while the ESPN app makes the action available via streaming.

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