Where South Carolina football sits in ESPN FPI following fourth loss in a row

On Saturday night, South Carolina football lost on the road in Oxford, dropping an ugly game against Ole Miss, 30-14. The defeat was the Gamecocks’ fourth in a row and sixth in seven games.

As much as Saturday’s contest was another ugly one for the Carolina offense (so much so that head coach Shane Beamer relieved offensive coordinator Mike Shula of his duties), the Gamecocks’ defensive effort and strength of schedule numbers caused ESPN’s Football Power Index to move USC up a bit in its national power rankings.

USC moved up one spot from last week. Now No. 39 overall, South Carolina is 13th in the SEC, ahead of only the Mississippi State Bulldogs (40), Arkansas Razorbacks (41), and Kentucky Wildcats (50). Joining Kentucky, the Virginia Tech Hokies (69) and Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (114) are the other two teams on the schedule below the Gamecocks. (South Carolina State is an FCS team, so they do not have an FPI rating.)

The Insiders Forum: Discuss South Carolina football!

Similar to the slight rise in FPI standing, South Carolina didn’t experience much movement in this week’s update to the FPI efficiency metrics.

Carolina remains at No. 92 in the FPI offensive efficiency metrics. For the ninth time in nine games this season, the Gamecocks failed to reach 350 yards of offense and didn’t score more than 22 offensive points. In fact, USC failed to eclipse 300 yards for the fourth time and 17 offensive points for the sixth time.

On the other side of the football, defensive coordinator Clayton White and his unit were good again. Following the same script as the Alabama loss, the South Carolina D kept South Carolina in the game until the final minutes when things fell apart a bit. The defense was good enough to win but couldn’t hold on to cover for bad offense. Following the Ole Miss defeat, the Gamecocks are now No. 26 in the country defensively. That is a one-spot improvement from last week.

Joe DeCamillis’ special teams groups struggled against the Rebels. The coverage units surrendered a couple of longer-than-expected returns and a fake punt first-down conversion. Punt safe return man Jalon Kilgore badly muffed a punt, resulting in a turnover and quick touchdown. The punt team couldn’t convert on a relatively easy inside-the-10 downing effort, too. On the positive side, Maurice Brown quickly jumped on a muffed Ole Miss punt. Somehow, the FPI moved South Carolina up two spots to No. 8 nationally in special teams efficiency.

Get GamecockCentral for $1 your first week. As a bonus, your membership includes a complimentary year of The Athletic.

South Carolina’s odds of reaching six wins and traditional bowl eligibility are at a season low. According to the FPI, the Gamecocks have just an 8.8% chance of doing so. That mirrors most national bowl projections, as USC fell out of those conversations over the past couple of weeks.

With that bleak prediction, ESPN’s model also projects a final record of 4.7-7.3 for the Gamecocks.

The worldwide leader considers South Carolina a slight favorite over the rival Clemson Tigers and a heavy favorite over the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. Even so, based on the predictive numbers, ESPN thinks a loss to Clemson is more likely than a win over Texas A&M in the team’s next game. USC is a heavy underdog in that contest.

On3 APP! Get GamecockCentral notifications

South Carolina has one more matchup in their five-game stretch against ranked opponents. Following a bye week, the Gamecocks will take on a top-10 FPI team in the Aggies. A&M sits at No. 9 overall in the power index. That will be USC’s final SEC game before non-conference matchups with Coastal Carolina (No. 114) and Clemson (No. 37) conclude the regular season.

This Saturday will allow South Carolina a week off. The open date gives the Gamecocks an extra week to adjust to new offensive leadership. Wide receivers coach/passing game coordinator Mike Furrey and offensive line coach/tight ends coach/run game coordinator Shawn Elliott are expected to handle more responsibilities. Assistant quarterbacks coach Davis Koetter likely will lead the quarterback room in Shula’s stead, as well.

The following week will be South Carolina’s final road game of the year. In the FPI efficiency rankings, Mike Elko’s Texas A&M team is No. 9 on offense, No. 18 on defense, and No. 64 on special teams. The Aggies are No. 10 in overall efficiency, 40 spots ahead of Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks.

The Insiders Forum: Discuss South Carolina football!