ESPN's FPI predictions faltering on South Carolina's bowl chances

South Carolina didn’t play this weekend thanks to an open date, but the action continued around the college football world. With many national results shifting the trajectory of the season, ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) updated in a major way this weekend.
Despite not playing, the Gamecocks shifted down a couple of spots to No. 29. That is now good for only 13th in the Southeastern Conference. Just the Arkansas Razorbacks (41), Mississippi State Bulldogs (45), and Kentucky Wildcats (50) sit below USC.
South Carolina’s drop in the FPI stems strictly from opponents’ schedules. All three of the Gamecocks’ previous power conference opponents who played this weekend exited Saturday with a loss. Virginia Tech dropped a home contest to former USC quarterback Robby Ashford and Wake Forest. Vanderbilt fell to Alabama on the road. Kentucky also got blown out on the road against Georgia.
All of the remaining power conference teams on the schedule won or did not play. LSU was on a bye. Oklahoma shut out Kent State. Alabama knocked off a ranked Vanderbilt squad. Ole Miss was also off with an open date. Texas A&M whipped Mississippi State. And the rival Clemson Tigers embarrassed North Carolina.
The rankings drop also came with shifts in Carolina’s efficiency metrics.
Both the Gamecocks’ defense and special teams moved up in the FPI efficiency rankings. Meanwhile, the offense dropped a few spots.
Mike Shula’s offense fell from No. 87 nationally to No. 90. Clayton White’s defense now sits at No. 27, up three spots from No. 30. Special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis kept a top 10 ranking for his unit, sliding up a spot from 9th to 8th nationally.
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With the drop in South Carolina’s FPI rating, ESPN also has dropped the team’s chances of a postseason berth.
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Having come into the year with somewhat realistic College Football Playoff aspirations, ESPN now gives Shane Beamer’s team just a 1.6% chance of making the 12-team field.
Up until this week, the FPI’s predictive measures kept the Gamecocks in traditional bowl eligibility. Now, though, the metric gives South Carolina an expected record of 5.9-6.1. While six wins are enough for bowl eligibility, and 5.9 rounds to six, the 5.9-win projection is the first time that number has dipped below six this season.
Game by game, ESPN predicts South Carolina to be an underdog in their next five games. With road contests against LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M and home games against Oklahoma and Alabama, the path ahead is difficult. The worldwide leader then predicts wins over Coastal Carolina and Clemson to close the season.
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South Carolina’s remaining schedule includes contests against the FPI’s No. 17 (LSU), No. 15 (Oklahoma), No. 3 (Alabama), No. 7 (Ole Miss), No. 13 (Texas A&M), and No. 40 (Clemson) teams.
That slate continues on Saturday with a visit to one of the toughest venues in college sports. South Carolina and LSU will play a night contest in Baton Rouge. Kickoff is set for 7:45 p.m. SEC Network will handle the broadcast, while the ESPN app will stream the contest.