ESPN predicts South Carolina's place in 2025 SEC race

Last week, ESPN released its first preseason FPI (Football Power Index) ahead of the 2025 college football season. (South Carolina was 15th.) Built into the FPI, though, was the worldwide leader’s prediction for how the SEC standings will look at the end of the year.

Based on the FPI rating for each team, Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks will finish 9th overall in the SEC this fall. Ahead of South Carolina in the rankings are (overall national ranking in parentheses) the Texas Longhorns (1), Georgia Bulldogs (2), Alabama Crimson Tide (3), Texas A&M Aggies (8), Tennessee Volunteers (10), LSU Tigers (12), Ole Miss Rebels (13), and Auburn Tigers (14). Then, rounding out the SEC are the Oklahoma Sooners (16), Florida Gators (18), Arkansas Razorbacks (22), Missouri Tigers (23), Kentucky Wildcats (34), Mississippi State Bulldogs (52), and Vanderbilt Commodores (56).

The full order of the FPI preseason SEC standings is listed below (FPI rating in parentheses).

1. Texas Longhorns (28.5)
2. Georgia Bulldogs (26.6)
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (24.2)
4. Texas A&M Aggies (17.9)
5. Tennessee Volunteers (17.4)
6. LSU Tigers (17.1)
7. Ole Miss Rebels (15.9)
8. Auburn Tigers (14.8)
9. South Carolina Gamecocks (14.7)
10. Oklahoma Sooners (14.6)
11. Florida Gators (14.3)
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (10.8)
13. Missouri Tigers (10.1)
14. Kentucky Wildcats (7.6)
15. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3.8)
16. Vanderbilt Commodores (3.4)

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The FPI’s predicted records tell a little bit of a different story.

While South Carolina remains 9th among SEC teams in potential win-loss record (7.3-4.8), several other teams hold different spots in the overall win-loss standings than they did in the FPI ranking.

Based on the FPI’s predicted regular-season win totals, the standings look a bit different (wins and losses in parentheses).

1. Texas Longhorns (10.4-2.1)
2. Georgia Bulldogs (10.1-2.3)
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (9.6-2.8)
4. Tennessee Volunteers (8.7-3.4)
5. Ole Miss Rebels (8.3-3.8)
6. Texas A&M Aggies (8.1-4.1)
7. LSU Tigers (7.9-4.2)
8. Auburn Tigers (7.5-4.5)
9. South Carolina Gamecocks (7.3-4.8)
10. Oklahoma Sooners (6.9-5.1)
11. Missouri Tigers (6.9-5.2)
12. Florida Gators (6.4-5.6)
13. Arkansas Razorbacks (6.1-5.9)
14. Kentucky Wildcats (5.6-6.4)
15. Vanderbilt Commodores (4.8-7.2)
16. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4.4-7.6)

The Gamecocks have the 8th-best FPI probability to win the SEC and the 8th-best odds of making it all the way to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Nine teams in the league–including the Gamecocks–have a 20% or better chance to make the CFP, according to the FPI. ESPN also gives Carolina an 82.4% shot of reaching the six-win bowl-eligibility threshold.

South Carolina’s road to beating the ESPN projections begins in about two and a half months. The Gamecocks will take on the Virginia Tech Hokies on Sunday, August 31st in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. ESPN will broadcast the 3:00 p.m. contest.

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