ESPN analytics model predicts final score for South Carolina-Oklahoma

South Carolina (3-3; 1-3) will take on Oklahoma (5-1; 1-1) on Saturday in Columbia. The afternoon matchup in Williams-Brice Stadium is the Gamecocks’ second of five top-15 games in a row.

Kickoff will be at 12:45 p.m. SEC Network will carry the television broadcast, while the ESPN app makes it available via streaming. The University of South Carolina has not yet announced a sellout for the game. However, all season tickets were sold out.

Two exciting quarterbacks will lead the teams on the field this weekend, as LaNorris Sellers and John Mateer are top-5 NFL Draft prospects. Both quarterbacks have additional eligibility beyond 2025 but could make the jump to the professional game.

Like South Carolina, Oklahoma is in the midst of a ridiculous stretch of difficult games, making Saturday an important game for both teams. The Gamecocks’ bowl chances shrink dramatically with another defeat. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s College Football Playoff odds nearly disappear with a loss.

Oklahoma enters the contest as a 5.5-point favorite, according to BetMGM. However, according to ESPN’s SP+ analytics model, the Sooners could win by even more.

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Designed by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, SP+ is a projection, not merely a ranking of what a team has already accomplished. Connelly explains, “What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking.”

Based on what the two teams have accomplished so far in 2025, Connelly’s model predicts a 27-18 final score.

A 27-point offensive outburst from the Sooners likely would require Oklahoma to do something it has never done.

Oklahoma has not scored more than two offensive touchdowns in an SEC game since joining the conference at the start of the 2024 season. South Carolina’s offense has been as futile, though, having scored three offensive touchdowns in a game just twice this year, once against FCS team SC State and once against the SEC cellar-dwelling Kentucky Wildcats.

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Per Connelly’s model, Oklahoma has a 71% chance to knock off South Carolina, too. The prediction stems from the Sooners’ advantage in the SP+ efficiency metrics.

Overall, Oklahoma holds a 34-spot lead on USC. Ranked 6th in the updated SP+, Brent Venables’ team also sits at No. 39 nationally in offense, No. 3 in defense, and No. 17 in special teams.

Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks are now 40th overall. That comes with a No. 68 ranking on offense, No. 19 spot defensively, and No. 36 ranking on special teams.

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