ESPN analytics model predicts score for South Carolina's home opener

South Carolina will play its first home game of the season on Saturday, as the SC State Bulldogs travel up from Orangeburg for a contest under the lights at Williams-Brice Stadium. Because the Gamecocks’ in-state foe is an FCS team, official point spreads are hard to come by in the lead-up to the showdown. However, it is safe to say that USC will enter Saturday night as a heavy favorite.

This week, ESPN’s SP+ analytics model updated and includes a projection for the game’s outcome.

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Giving South Carolina a (rounded) 100% chance of victory, ESPN’s model predicts an approximate 44-2 final score.

Last week, the SP+ gave the Gamecocks a 72% chance to beat Virginia Tech and predicted a 30-21 victory. South Carolina won, 24-11.

The final SP+ rankings this preseason listed South Carolina as the No. 17 overall team in college football. Following the team’s opening weekend triumph over Virginia Tech, the Gamecocks jumped up to No. 12 nationally. That move marked an improvement from 10th to 8th in the SEC from the preseason, as well.

USC’s SP+ rating increased from 16.0 to 17.2. Carolina’s metrics also improved in all three phases of the game. The Gamecocks moved from No. 26 to No. 25 nationally in offensive efficiency. They also saw an uptick in defensive efficiency ranking from No. 18 to No. 10. Special teams bumped up one spot from No. 50 to No. 49.

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Designed by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, SP+ is a projection, not merely a ranking of what a team has already accomplished. Connelly explains, “What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking.”

This means that the analytics model believes South Carolina is the No. 12 team in college football moving forward. Most of the current SP+ ratings stem from preseason projections, but as the season rolls along, 2025 results will have a bigger impact on the model.

The Gamecocks and Bulldogs will kick off at 7:00 p.m. on Saturday. The game will not be on national television but will stream on both ESPN+ and SEC Network+.

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