ESPN analytics model predicts final score for South Carolina-LSU
South Carolina (3-2; 1-2) will take on LSU (4-1; 1-1) on Saturday in Baton Rouge. The night game matchup in Death Valley represents the first of five top-11 contests for the Gamecocks, and the Tigers enter as 9.5-point favorites.
Kickoff will be at 7:45 p.m. SEC Network will carry the television broadcast, while the ESPN app makes it available via streaming.
Tiger Stadium has sold out for Saturday night, as two of the country’s top quarterbacks square off in huge games for both teams. South Carolina’s bowl chances shrink substantially with a loss, while LSU would fall nearly all the way out of the College Football Playoff picture with a loss.
LSU enters the contest as a 9.5-point favorite, according to BetMGM. However, according to ESPN’s SP+ analytics model, the Tigers could win by even more.
Designed by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, SP+ is a projection, not merely a ranking of what a team has already accomplished. Connelly explains, “What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking.”
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Based on what the two teams have accomplished so far in 2025, Connelly’s model predicts a 29-16 final score.
Per Connelly’s model, LSU has a 78% chance to knock off South Carolina, too. The prediction stems from the Tigers’ advantage in the SP+ efficiency metrics.
Overall, LSU holds a 25-spot lead on USC. Ranked 16th in the updated SP+, Brian Kelly’s team also sits at No. 41 nationally in offense, No. 5 in defense, and No. 33 in special teams.
Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks are now 41st overall. That comes with a No. 66 ranking on offense, No. 21 spot defensively, and No. 32 ranking on special teams.