South Carolina football's bowl projections fading with latest loss

Mondays are typically the day on which we publish a story that updates what the national media folks think will happen this winter regarding South Carolina football’s bowl destination. Last season, that even included some College Football Playoff chatter.
As of this Monday, though, the conversation looks drastically different. The Gamecocks lost to Oklahoma by a score of 26-7 on Saturday to move to 3-4 (1-4). Because of the loss, there aren’t many bowl projections out there for Carolina.
In fact, none of the major projections we normally use includes South Carolina as part of their 2025-2026 bowl season.
On3’s Brett McMurphy dropped the Gamecocks from his projection but included Shane Beamer’s team among the ones who could still fight their way to a bowl game. However, he called doing so “an uphill climb.”
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura both unceremoniously dumped Carolina from their projections. Their ESPN colleague Pamela Maldonado added some salt to that wound by saying that the team’s next opponent (the Alabama Crimson Tide) is the best team in the SEC.
Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan had predicted four straight weeks that South Carolina would play in the Liberty Bowl. This week, though, the Gamecocks were nowhere to be found on his bowl list. Lassan listed USC first on his list of teams that are “just missing the projections.”
A little ahead of the curve, former CBS Sports bracket guru Jerry Palm published his fourth Gamecock-less bowl projection in a row this week.
This is not an update that South Carolina fans like. However, with a 3-4 record and losses in four of five games leading up to three consecutive games against top-eight opponents, the reality is that making the postseason in any capacity feels improbable.
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To change that reality, South Carolina will have to turn things around even in the face of stiff challenges.
Next up on the schedule is a home date with the Alabama Crimson Tide. This Saturday’s contest against the AP No. 4 team will be the Gamecocks’ Homecoming. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m., and ABC will handle the national broadcast, while the ESPN app and ESPN+ stream the action.
Following the Alabama game, South Carolina will travel to Ole Miss and Texas A&M. Then, they will end the regular season with home contests against Coastal Carolina and Clemson.
Reaching traditional bowl eligibility will require three victories. At least one of them will have to be an upset based on current resumes.
Though most national projections aren’t high on Carolina’s chances, the ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) gives the Gamecocks a better chance to reach bowl eligibility than most others do. According to the FPI, USC has a 30.5% chance of earning at least six wins. Even so, the team’s projected win-loss record sits at 5.1-6.9.