National Predictions ahead of South Carolina-Kentucky

On Saturday, South Carolina will return home for a matchup with Kentucky. The Gamecocks (2-2; 0-2) and Wildcats (2-1; 0-1) will play under the lights at Williams-Brice Stadium.

Shane Beamer’s team will enter the weekend coming off two SEC losses, a home defeat to Vanderbilt and a road loss to Missouri. Mark Stoops’ squad is coming off a bye week.

The loss last Saturday pushed the Gamecocks completely out of top 25 voting. The Wildcats haven’t been part of the rankings conversations all year. For the futures of the 2025 editions of each team, this contest represents as close to a “must-win” as is possible in September.

National opinions on the game have begun to reach a consensus. Despite previous struggles this fall, South Carolina is the favorite, and the majority of national voices like the Gamecocks to win.

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BetMGM’s line for the SEC showdown has shifted down a little bit. Opening as a 7-point favorite, USC now holds a 6.5-point advantage in the betting market. Some other markets have dropped the spread as low as 5.5 points.

According to the ESPN FPI matchup predictor, South Carolina has a 57.8% chance of winning on Saturday. ESPN’s SP+ analytics model predicts a (rounded) final score of 24-24. A further dig shows that the model likes the Gamecocks as a slight–extremely slight–favorite to win and a just-higher-than-50% chance of victory.

SEC Network’s Joe Menzer, along with analysts Benjamin Watson, Alyssa Lang, Chris Doering, and Dari Nowkhah, released their SEC power rankings this week, positioning Carolina at No. 13. Kentucky was 16th in the conference, and Menzer wrote that the Gamecocks should win this Saturday’s game.

College Football News’ Pete Fiutak criticized South Carolina’s 2025 on-field product. Saying “the team is better than this,” Fiutak expressed disappointment in what the Gamecocks have been this fall, relative to expectations. He predicts a slight bounce-back on Saturday with a 30-24 victory.

Fox Sports’ AI pick (yes, that is artificial intelligence) picked South Carolina to win the game and cover the spread. The computer-generated score prediction favors USC, 27-20.

Some other prominent outlets elected not to pick South Carolina-Kentucky, with neither the Gamecocks nor the Wildcats seemingly in a position to push back into the national spotlight.

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If the national predictions accurately reflect what will happen on Saturday, the Gamecocks could get a much-needed confidence boost heading into a bye week. However, following that bye, South Carolina enters the toughest portion of the 2025 schedule. USC will take on LSU (on the road), Oklahoma (at home), Alabama (at home), Ole Miss (on the road), and Texas A&M (on the road) in consecutive contests. Once that stretch of games begins, there will not be a bye until the week before the A&M game.

South Carolina enters Saturday’s game having won three in a row over Kentucky. Head coach Shane Beamer has a 3-1 overall record against UK headman Mark Stoops, as well.

Saturday’s showdown will begin at 7:45 p.m. (Eastern). SEC Network will broadcast the conference battle, while the ESPN app makes it available via streaming.

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