ESPN analytics model predicts final score for South Carolina-Alabama

South Carolina (3-4; 1-4) will take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1; 4-0) on Saturday afternoon. The home contest in Williams-Brice Stadium is the third of five consecutive top-15 showdowns for the Gamecocks.

Alabama enters the contest as a 12.5-point favorite, according to BetMGM. However, ESPN’s SP+ analytics model isn’t quite as high on the Crimson Tide.

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Designed by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, SP+ is a projection, not merely a ranking of what a team has already accomplished. Connelly explains, “What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking.”

Based on what the two teams have accomplished so far in 2025, Connelly’s model predicts a 29-19 final score in favor of Alabama. That would mean a USC cover in a losing effort.

Per Connelly’s model, Alabama has a 74% chance to knock off South Carolina. The prediction stems from the Tide’s advantage in the SP+ efficiency metrics.

Overall, Alabama holds a 43-spot lead on USC. Ranked 9th in the updated SP+, Kalen DeBoer’s team also sits at No. 15 nationally in offense, No. 14 in defense, and No. 92 in special teams.

Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks are now 52nd overall. That comes with a No. 85 ranking on offense, No. 17 spot defensively, and No. 40 ranking on special teams.

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Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ABC will carry the broadcast, while ESPN+ and the ESPN app stream the action. The University of South Carolina has not yet announced a sellout for the game at the time of this writing. However, all season tickets sold out this offseason.

At the quarterback position, preseason Heisman hopeful LaNorris Sellers will do battle with current Heisman frontrunner Ty Simpson. Both players are high on NFL Draft boards for next spring but could return to college in 2026 instead.

Like USC, Alabama is in the middle of a tough stretch of games. The Crimson Tide’s only non-ranked opponent on the schedule between September 27th and November 15th (seven games) is South Carolina, a team that reached the top 10 earlier this season.

Perhaps adding to the program’s hopes for an upset, the 2010 team will be having a 15-year reunion this weekend. That team won the SEC East and knocked off the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Williams-Brice. Current South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer was an assistant on Steve Spurrier’s staff that season.

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