ESPN analytics model predicts South Carolina-Ole Miss final score

South Carolina (3-5; 1-5) will take on the Ole Miss Rebels (7-1; 4-1) on Saturday night. The road contest in Oxford’s Vaught Hemingway Stadium will be the Gamecocks’ fourth game in a row against a top-15 opponent.

Ole Miss enters the contest as a 13.5-point favorite, according to BetMGM. However, ESPN’s SP+ analytics model is even higher on the Rebels heading into Saturday’s SEC showdown.

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Designed by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, SP+ is a projection, not merely a ranking of what a team has already accomplished. Connelly explains, “What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking.”

Based on what the two teams have accomplished so far in 2025, Connelly’s model predicts a 34-17 final score in favor of Ole Miss. That would mean the home team would win and cover the lopsided spread. The analytics model has set the over/under for 53.5 total points. The projected score of 34-17 (51 total points) would represent an “under” hit.

Per Connelly’s model, Ole Miss has an 85% chance to knock off South Carolina. The prediction stems from the Rebels’ advantage in the SP+ efficiency metrics.

Overall, Ole Miss holds a 44-spot lead on USC. Ranked 10th in the updated SP+, Lane Kiffin’s team also sits at No. 10 nationally on offense, No. 26 on defense, and No. 3 on special teams.

Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks are now 54th overall. That comes with a No. 84 ranking on offense, No. 23 spot defensively, and No. 34 ranking on special teams.

Coming into the weekend, South Carolina is 15th overall in the SP+ SEC rankings. The Gamecocks are also No. 16 in the SEC in SP+ offensive efficiency, No. 9 in SP+ defensive efficiency, and No. 8 in SP+ special teams efficiency. Ole Miss slots in at No. 4 in the SEC’s overall SP+ rankings. The Rebels are 4th in the conference in SP+ offensive efficiency, 11th in SP+ defensive efficiency, and 2nd in SP+ special teams efficiency.

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Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. (Eastern). ESPN will carry the broadcast, while the ESPN app streams the action. The University of Mississippi has not announced a sellout for the contest, something that Kiffin has lamented publicly this week.

At the quarterback position, preseason Heisman hopeful LaNorris Sellers will do battle with current Heisman candidate Trinidad Chambliss. Both players are high on NFL Draft boards for next spring, but Sellers can return to school.

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