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ESPN analytics model predicts final score for South Carolina-Coastal

Screenshotby: Kevin Miller36 minutes agokevinmillerGC
Shane Beamer, South Carolina
Oct 25, 2025; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks head coach Shane Beamer reacts to a play against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the second quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

South Carolina (3-7; 1-7) will take on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (6-4; 5-2) on Saturday. The game will be one of two in-state home matchups to close the 2025 season for the Gamecocks, along with the annual Palmetto Bowl rivalry contest against the Clemson Tigers.

According to the current line from BetMGM, South Carolina enters the weekend as a 24.5-point favorite over Coastal. However, ESPN’s SP+ analytics model does not think that the Palmetto State contest will be that lopsided.

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Designed by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, SP+ is a projection, not merely a ranking of what a team has already accomplished. Connelly explains, “What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking.”

Based on the first ten games of the 2025 season for both teams, Connelly’s model predicts a 34-19 final score in favor of South Carolina. Despite the Gamecock victory, that would mean that Coastal would cover the spread. The analytics model has the over/under set for 53.5 total points. The projected score of 34-19 (53 total points) would represent an “under” hit.

Per Connelly’s model, Carolina has an 84% chance to win. That prediction stems from the Gamecocks’ advantage in the SP+ efficiency metrics.

Overall, South Carolina holds a 48-spot lead on Coastal Carolina in the current SP+ rankings. Ranked 54th in the updated SP+, Shane Beamer’s squad also sits at No. 79 nationally on offense, No. 33 on defense, and No. 22 on special teams.

Tim Beck’s Chanticleers are 102nd overall. That comes with a No. 74 ranking on offense, No. 121 mark on defense, and No. 73 spot in the special teams efficiency rankings. Coastal holds a slight efficiency advantage over Carolina’s offense but trails significantly in the other two phases of the game.

Coming into the weekend, South Carolina is dead last in the SP+ SEC rankings. The Gamecocks are also last in the SEC in SP+ offensive efficiency, No. 10 in SP+ defensive efficiency, and No. 7 in SP+ special teams efficiency.

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Kickoff is set for 4:15 p.m. (Eastern) on Saturday. SEC Network will carry the broadcast, while the ESPN app streams the action. South Carolina seniors will also be honored on Saturday as part of USC’s Senior Day.

The Gamecocks have never lost to the Chanticleers. Back in 2018, South Carolina won the season opener, 49-15. In 2013, the Gamecocks won, 70-10, when Coastal was still an FCS program.

The Insiders Forum: Discuss South Carolina football!