ESPN analytics model predicts score for South Carolina-Vanderbilt

Week three of the college football season is here, and South Carolina will host Vanderbilt for the SEC opener for both teams. The Gamecocks have beaten the Commodores 16 times in a row, but the visitors are entering the weekend with supreme confidence.

The betting market favors Shane Beamer’s team by a slim margin, and the national sentiment does, as well. However, considering South Carolina is No. 11 in the AP poll, and Vanderbilt remains unranked, the current 3.5-point spread is tighter than one might expect.

One projection, though, doesn’t see the spread as a problem for USC. ESPN’s SP+, an analytics model created by Bill Connelly, likes the Gamecocks even more than the consensus.

For those unfamiliar, SP+ is a projection, not merely a ranking of what a team has already accomplished. Connelly explains, “What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking.”

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According to the SP+, South Carolina will win on Saturday and cover the spread. In fact, Connelly’s model predicts a 30-21 victory for the home team in Williams-Brice Stadium. SP+ also gives Carolina a 72% chance of victory outright.

The analytics system currently ranks the Gamecocks as college football’s No. 12 team. 12th is good for No. 7 in the Southeastern Conference. The updated ranking comes with new marks for the team’s expected efficiency metrics, as well.

South Carolina’s overall SP+ remains unchanged from 17.2, and, naturally, the team’s spot in the rankings was unchanged from 12th. Ironically, both the Gamecocks’ offense (25th to 35th) and defense (10th to 13th) moved down in the SP+ rankings. Special teams bumped up one spot from No. 49 to No. 48.

This means that the analytics model believes South Carolina is the No. 12 team in college football moving forward. It also means that the model thinks the Gamecocks will have the 35th-best offense, 13th-best defense, and 48th-best special teams in 2025. Most of the current SP+ ratings stem from preseason projections, but as the season rolls along, 2025 results will have a bigger impact on the model.

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