South Carolina women's basketball: A'ja Wilson's M'V4 case

“The reason Michael Jordan and Babe Ruth are the best players ever is that they were better at their sport than anybody else in the world is at anything.” – Bill Addleman

With just over a week left in the WNBA regular season, A’ja Wilson and Napheesa Collier are the clear frontrunners to win the MVP award.

Collier is the betting favorite according to BetMGM and FanDuel, and many media outlets continue to list her as their choice.

Collier’s case is strong. She’s the best player on the best team, and she leads the league in scoring, is third in steals, and fourth in blocks. The biggest knock on Collier, and it is significant, is that she has missed 10 games, a full quarter of the season so far.

But Wilson’s case is just as strong. She is the best player on the second-best team in the league; she is the leader in blocks, second in rebounding, fourth in steals, second in scoring, and leads in efficiency rating.

Why are so many people assuming Collier will win if the stats favor Wilson? Minnesota got off to a blistering start to the season, while Las Vegas and Wilson hovered around .500. That made Collier the clear MVP. 

But over the last month, the Aces have been the hottest team in the league, and Wilson the hottest player. People seem to have already made up their mind, though.

Watching the 2024 Paris Olympics, it stood out how clearly better Collier and Wilson are than everyone else in the world. If anything, both are better players now than they were a year ago. 

But Collier has the misfortune of being the second-best player of the two. She’s Patrick Ewing’s Knicks to Jordan’s Bulls. 

Why does it feel like Wilson is fighting against the current? Her biggest challenge isn’t Collier, it’s boredom.

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The WNBA voters seem particularly averse to stability. There has not been a back-to-back MVP winner since Cynthia Cooper won the first two in 1997 and 1998. 

The trend was evident in 2023, when Breanna Stewart won despite not receiving the most first- or second-place votes. Voters just couldn’t bring themselves to have the reigning MVP Wilson win again (remember the infamous fourth-place vote?).

Not convinced? Look no further than Wilson’s scoring this season. She needs just 99 points over the final four games to finish with the second-highest season point total in league history.

But it won’t top her total from last season, so it’s boring. 

“I think any time when a person has to ask the question who is as good as A’ja Wilson, that’s where you start with the conversation, that’s your answer,” Aces coach Becky Hammon said recently. “Don’t get tired of her greatness. At times, I look down at the stat sheet and I’m like Oh ****, she has 36 or she has 34. You don’t even notice that because it’s become so normal.

“I don’t want the world to miss her because she’s here, she’s right now, she’s in her prime, and she is killing it.”

Wilson is just 29, but she is already one of the best WNBA players ever. Depending on how long she plays, she could end any debate.

Wilson is currently one of four players with three MVPs. Barring injury, she will become the first to win four, if not this season, then soon (probably next season, based on voting patterns). It will put her in select company.

In the NBA, three players have won four or more MVP awards: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (six), Jordan and Bill Russell (five), and Wilt Chamberlain and LeBron James (four). Barry Bonds (seven) is the only baseball player with more than three. Only Peyton Manning (five) and Aaron Rodgers (four) have done it in the NFL.

The Lynx and Aces play each other on Thursday in Las Vegas. It could be the last chance for Collier or Wilson to make a signature MVP statement (Minnesota has already clinched homecourt throughout the playoffs, so the Lynx could choose to rest players).

(In case you’re wondering where the quote at the top came from, it’s something my grandfather, a sports junkie who kept his own box scores while watching games at home, told me in the 1990s to explain how good Ruth and Jordan were.)

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