South Carolina women's basketball: Simulating the 2020 NCAA Tournament - Who is the champion?

Five years after a global pandemic dashed South Carolina’s championship aspirations, we use AI to simulate the canceled tournament and find out who would have won it all.

The 2020 NCAA Tournament is one of the great What-Ifs in Gamecock history, up there with Sindarius Thorwell getting sick, Marquez North’s miracle catch, and Navy.

Last week, I set the stage, seeding all 64 teams and simulating the first two rounds of the tournament. Today, we get to the important part: who would win?

In the 2019-20 season, South Carolina went 32-1 and finished the season on a 26-game winning streak. The only loss came to Indiana in the Virgin Islands, a game where Aliyah Boston, who learned earlier in the day that one of her favorite teachers had died, fouled out. 

During the winning streak, South Carolina won all but two games by double digits. The team set a (since-broken) record for blocked shots, was fifth in the country in rebounding, and was top ten on offense and defense. 

There were eight future WNBA Draft picks on the roster. Boston and Tyasha Harris were All-Americans, plus Boston was the national Freshman of the Year, and Harris was the SEC female athlete of the year.

Based on the 1,000 simulations, South Carolina had a 99.9% chance of making the second round, a 92% chance of making the Sweet 16, an 85% chance of making the Elite Eight, and a 78% chance of making the Final Four.

The simulated results began with an 84-47 win over Jackson State in the first round and 76-59 win over FGCU in the second round. 

In the Sweet 16, South Carolina beat Oregon State 72-62 behind “balanced scoring” and its “depth and inside game.” South Carolina beat UCLA 70-63 because it “controls tempo, wins the boards” to advance to the Final Four.

Maryland (40%), Oregon (42%), and Baylor (48%) were the other teams most likely to make the Final Four. Maryland and South Carolina play in the first semifinal, and Oregon and Baylor play in the nightcap.

The four other teams most likely to make a Final Four run were UConn, Stanford, Louisville, and NC State, with UCLA, Mississippi State, and Gonzaga as dark horses. The downside of using so many simulations is that they filter out a lot of upsets, but single runs were too random.

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For the Final Four, I asked ChatGPT to create game summaries and sample statistics (full box scores tended to result in errors, so we had to make do with samples).

Final Score: South Carolina 68, Maryland 61
A battle between two No. 1 seeds, this game was a showcase of elite defense. South Carolina used a swarming press to limit Maryland’s interior game. The Gamecocks controlled the boards, with Aliyah Boston grabbing 13 rebounds and Tyasha Harris directing the offense with poise.

Key Stats:
– Rebounds: SC 38, MD 31
– Turnovers: SC 11, MD 14
– FG %: SC 45%, MD 41%

Final Score: Baylor 74, Oregon 66
A highly anticipated matchup featuring Sabrina Ionescu and Baylor’s elite frontcourt. Despite Ionescu’s triple-double, Baylor’s physicality inside and dominance on the offensive glass proved too much. Lauren Cox and NaLyssa Smith combined for 34 points.

Key Stats:
– Rebounds: Baylor 41, Oregon 34
– Turnovers: Baylor 10, Oregon 13
– FG %: Baylor 47%, Oregon 42%

This sets up a championship game between South Carolina and Baylor, not the Oregon matchup most people anticipated. The Gamecocks and Bears met earlier in the season in the Virgin Islands. The Gamecocks won that game 74-59, although Baylor was without Lauren Cox.

Boston and Harris each scored 20 points in that game, with Boston adding 13 rebounds and Harris dishing out seven assists. South Carolina shot 52.8% and held Baylor to 34.8% shooting. South Carolina was also plus-14 in rebounding and plus-seven in blocked shots.

On to the imaginary championship game.

Final Score: South Carolina 71, Baylor 66
The title game featured the two most dominant teams of the season. South Carolina held Baylor scoreless for a critical 4-minute stretch in the fourth quarter. Tyasha Harris took over late, scoring 8 of her 19 points in the final five minutes. Aliyah Boston recorded a double-double and anchored the paint.

Key Stats:
– Rebounds: SC 37, Baylor 36
– Turnovers: SC 10, Baylor 12
– FG %: SC 46%, Baylor 44%
– Blocks: SC 6, Baylor 3

Most Outstanding Player: Tyasha Harris (South Carolina)

There was a 65% chance that South Carolina would make the title game and a 61.2% chance of South Carolina winning the championship game. The most likely opponent was Baylor (25%), and the average margin of victory was 8.7 points.

Here’s the full, complete bracket:

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