Breaking down Tennessee's College Football Playoff competition

After falling to Georgia in Athens on Saturday night 31-17, Tennessee tumbled in the third installment of the College Football Playoff Rankings. The Vols dropped from No.7 previously to No.11 in this week’s update. 

While 12 teams get into the playoffs, the five highest-rated conference champions are guaranteed a spot. So due to this, and the way the rankings fell this week, even being ranked as the No.11 team in the country, the Vols are currently the first team out of the playoffs. 

There are still multiple paths for Tennessee to climb back into the field of 12, and it goes without saying that it starts by winning the next two games on the schedule. After that, the Vols still need some form of help, and we break down each form of competition here. 

Tennessee’s resume is as follows:

SOS- 18

Best Win at this time: No.7 Alabama (8-2)

Worst Loss at this time- Arkansas (5-5)

Indiana

How does the committee view the Hoosiers? Sitting at 10-0 currently and No. 5 in the country, there are three teams with one loss ahead of them, including conference foes Penn State and Ohio State. 

The Hoosiers currently have the 106th strength of schedule, according to ESPN. The Hoosiers’ best win is currently against either 5-5 Michigan or 5-5 Nebraska, you pick. The resume is not strong through 10 games. 

Many believe, based on this, that the Hoosiers do not belong in the field of 12 if they suffer a setback. This may be the case, but they clearly control their destiny, as they have a showdown in Columbus this weekend with No. 2 Ohio State. Now, do they have to win this game, or just prove they can hang with the top-tier team? If the Buckeyes win convincingly, then it seems more than possible the Hoosiers will fall hard just like BYU did this week after its first loss. 

After the matchup with Ohio State, Indiana takes on a struggling Purdue team to finish the season, who would certainly not be viewed as a stock booster. 

SOS– 106

Best Win at this time: 5-5 Michigan or 5-5 Nebraska

Worst Loss at this time: None

Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish are currently ranked No. 6 in the country and are the No. 8 seed in the latest bracket, meaning they would host a home playoff game as it stands. 

Notre Dame has a strong win on their resume over Texas A&M back in week one, but they followed that up a week later by dropping one at home to NIU. This is clearly the worst loss on the resume for any of the programs in consideration for the 12-team playoff.

The Fighting Irish are set for a top-20 matchup with Army this weekend, before finishing the season on the road at USC. Given the loss to NIU, another loss would likely knock Notre Dame out of the playoff race, and they would certainly not have a stronger resume or better win than the Vols at that point. 

SOS– 82

Best Win at this time: No.15 Texas A&M (8-2)

Current Worst Loss at this time: Northern Illinois (6-5)

Ole Miss

Ole Miss lost at home to a bad Kentucky team. Tennessee lost on the road to an Arkansas team that has a real shot at becoming bowl-eligible. The Vols fell in Athens and Ole Miss lost in an overtime thriller at LSU. These have been talking points since last week, but the committee clearly values Ole Miss’s dominant performance over Georgia and their recent wins more than the Vols resume at this point. 

Still, another stumble by the Rebels, and it is hard to envision them getting in without a lot of help, and especially hard to see them getting in over a two-loss Tennessee team. 

They end the season in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State, and years past have taught us this game can provide plenty of excitement, but the Rebels appear poised to handle their in-state rival this season. 

Before getting to the Egg Bowl, Lane Kiffin’s team must travel to take on a Florida team that appears to be finding its footing. The Gators downed LSU last week by 11 points, and the Swamp will look to play spoiler to Kiffin and the Rebels this weekend. A loss here would certainly boost the Vols’ playoff chances.

SOS– 29

Best Win at this time: No.10 Georgia (8-2)

Worst Loss at this time: Kentucky (4-6)

Alabama 

Tennessee beat the Crimson Tide head-to-head, but this is not something the committee appears to value right now. With both teams sitting at 8-2, Alabama is ranked No. 7 in the country and firmly in the playoff picture, while the Vols are at No. 11 and sitting as the first team out. 

The Crimson Tide appear to be in good shape with matchups against struggling Oklahoma and Auburn left on the schedule. A loss would likely end their playoff dreams, though.

Now, if Alabama handles business, as expected, they appear poised to win the 10-2 tie-breaker scenario to get to the SEC championship game, unless Missouri was to somehow lose out. 

They will likely play either Texas or Texas A&M. Now, the question becomes if they were to lose in the championship game, does the committee punish a three-loss conference runner-up? The jury remains out on that. Georgia sure got punished for their one loss that came in the conference championship in 2023. 

SOS– 16

Best Win at this time: No. 10 Georgia (8-2)

Worst Loss at this time: Vanderbilt (6-4)

Georgia

There is not a lot to say about the Bulldogs here. The win over Tennessee vaulted them squarely back into the playoff race after being the first team out last week. 

Kirby Smart’s team has a buy game against a UMass team that just fired their head coach this upcoming week, then they play host to Georgia Tech in the season finale. Long story short, it would take an epic upset to keep the Bulldogs out of the playoffs. 

SOS– 1

Best Win at this time: No. 3 Texas (9-1)

Worst Loss at this time: No. 9 Ole Miss (8-2)

Penn State 

The committee clearly values a one-loss Penn State higher than an undefeated Indiana, but how would they value a two-loss Penn State against a two-loss SEC team?

The Nittany Lions’ only loss is to Ohio State. This is clearly not a bad loss. But if they drop one of their remaining two games to either Minnesota or Maryland, how much does this muddy the waters for the committee? 

It would not be a foregone conclusion that Penn State would fall all the way out, but it certainly gives a two-loss SEC team, like Tennessee, more of an opportunity to jump back in the field of 12, especially if they are winning the right way. 

SOS– 35

Best Win at this time: No. 24 Illinois (7-3)

Worst Loss at this time: No. 2 Ohio State (9-1)

Texas

The Longhorns sit strong in the field of 12 at No. 3 overall and as the No. 2 seed in the bracket. If they run the table and just make the conference championship, they are undoubtedly getting in.

Now, if they were to lose to either Kentucky or Texas A&M and miss the conference championship, there should be a discussion to be had.

If the loss was to Kentucky, then they would undoubtedly have a worse loss than the Vols. If they beat A&M the next week, they would still not have a better win than Tennessee’s over Alabama. And if the Vols finish out 10-2, then they will have also canceled out Texas’ win over Vandy, although, one could argue the Longhorns beat Arkansas, who took down Tennessee.

If Sark’s team beat Kentucky and then lost to A&M, they would not have a worse loss than the Vols’ letdown against Arkansas, but they would still not have a better win. They would have also lost at home to Georgia by one more point than Tennessee lost to the Bulldogs in Athens. 

SOS– 38

Best Win at this time: Vanderbilt (6-4)

Worst Loss at this time: No.10 Georgia (8-2)