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D1 Baseball Projections: Tennessee drops out of top 16 mix with latest series-loss

On3 imageby: Eric Cain05/13/25_Cainer
Tennessee Baseball | Jamar Coach/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK
Tennessee's mascot Smokey celebrates with the crowd during the NCAA Knoxville Super Regionals between Tennessee and Notre Dame at Lindsey Nelson Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee on Sunday, June 12, 2022. Tennessee Baseball | Jamar Coach/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

The final week of the regular season is here and the Tennessee Volunteers are on the brink of a top-16 seed with the right to host an NCAA Regional in Knoxville this postseason. According to D1 Baseball, however, the Vols are currently on the outside looking in heading into the pivotal weekend.

Tony Vitello’s club has dropped four-straight weekend series and five of the past six. It’s lost four-straight rubber matches and are 2-5 on the season in such contests. The No. 17 Vols (39-13, 15-12 SEC) haven’t won back-to-back conference games since April 13 (Ole Miss) and April 18 (Kentucky).

With the recent struggles, Tennessee has moved off the host line, according to the publication, and will be the No. 2 seed in the Morgantown Regional.

“Tennessee, after losing yet another SEC series over the weekend, drops out of the Top 16 mix — though could get right back into the mix with a road series win over Arkansas,” the article stated.

West Virginia would be the host program in this scenario, grabbing the final host seed (No. 16 overall). The Volunteers would be the No. 2 seed in the mockup with Virgina (3) and Holy Cross (4). The Morgantown Regional would matchup with the Austin Regional (with top-overall seed Texas) in this projection for a Super Regional.

According to D1 Baseball in this week’s updated field of 64 projections, the top-16 seeds are Texas (1), LSU (2), Arkansas (3), Florida State (4), Vanderbilt (5), Georgia (6), Auburn (7), North Carolina (8), Oregon (9), Coastal Carolina (10), UCLA (11), Oregon State (12), TCU (13), Alabama (14), NC State (15) and West Virginia (16).

The top-8 seeds (if they advance) would qualify to host a super regional.   

So, a series-win at No. 8 Arkansas this weekend feels like a must if Tennessee hopes to host an NCAA Regional in Knoxville following the conclusion of the Southeastern Conference Tournament in two weeks.

On3’s Jonathan Wagner posted his latest Field of 64 Projections earlier this week with the Vols clinging on to a host seed. Tennessee comes in as the No. 15 overall seed in this week’s projections after falling to Vanderbilt in two games to one fashion last weekend at home.

“Tennessee is in serious danger of falling out of the hosting race, though they hold on in this week’s Field of 64,” the article states. “The Vols are 39-13 overall, 15-12 in the SEC and No. 15 in RPI with a 10-8 Q1 record, but have now lost four series in a row and five of their last six, and if they can’t take their final series against Arkansas, will a team that’s lost six of their last seven series get the nod? If they don’t Dallas Baptist is right on the cusp, and actually dropped out of the top 16 in this week’s projections.”

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