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ESPN moves Tennessee's College Football Playoff chances up to 67% after beating Alabama

IMG_3593by: Grant Ramey10/20/24GrantRamey
Tennessee Football | Alan Poizner-Imagn Images
(Alan Poizner-Imagn Images) Oct 19, 2024; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers players and coaches react after a play under review was ruled a touchdown against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the fourth quarter at Neyland Stadium.

Tennessee Football now has a 67% chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. The Vols entered Saturday with a 44.8% chance, before beating Alabama 24-17 at Neyland Stadium. 

The 67% chance is the seventh highest odds according to the ESPN numbers. Georgia and Oregon both had an 87% chance, after Georgia won at Texas Saturday night and Oregon beat Ohio State at home last week.

Miami has an 86% chance, Ohio State has a 79% chance, Texas has a 78% chance and Penn State has a 73% chance. 

Up Next: No. 7 Tennessee vs. Kentucky, Saturday, November 2

Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC) moved up to No. 8 in the Coaches Poll on Sunday afternoon. 

The Vols are now ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s Football Power Index with a projected win-loss record of 10.2-2.1. They have a 15.0% chance to win out, a 17.8% chance to win the SEC, a 12.5% chance to make it to the national championship game and a 6.3% chance to win the national title. 

Tennessee is off next week before hosting two more back-to-back home games against Kentucky (November 2) and Mississippi State (November 9). They go to Georgia on November 16, host UTEP on November 30 and close the regular-season schedule at Vanderbilt on November 30. 

Georgia (6-1, 4-1) and Vanderbilt (5-2, 2-1) are currently the only teams left on Tennessee’s schedule with records above .500. Kentucky is 3-4 and both Mississippi State and UTEP are 1-6.

Tennessee Football’s scenarios in the ESPN Playoff Predictor

ESPN’s Playoff Predictor has Kentucky, Georgia and Vanderbilt as Tennessee’s three biggest games remaining on schedule, giving the Vols a 90% chance to beat Kentucky, a 39% chance to beat Georgia and an 83% chance to win at Vanderbilt.

Should Tennessee finish the regular season with a 10-2 record with losses at Arkansas and Georgia, the Vols would have an 80% chance to make the College Football Playoff, a 25% chance to host in the first round and a 54% chance to go on the road in the first round. 

That’s all assuming Tennessee does not play in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta at 10-2.

Wins over Kentucky and Georgia and a loss at Vanderbilt would mean a 79% chance to make the playoff, a 27% chance to host in the first round and a 52% chance to play on the road. 

Entering Selection Sunday with a 10-3 record, with losses at Arkansas and Georgia and in the SEC Championship game, would drop Tennessee’s playoff chances to 32%, with a 3% chance to play a home game in the first round and a 28% chance to go on the road.

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