Draft grades and analysis after Chase Dollander went No. 9 overall to the Colorado Rockies

When Chase Dollander’s name was called at No. 9 overall in the 2023 MLB Draft Sunday night, selected by the Colorado Rockies, he became the 19th first-round pick in Tennessee baseball history, the fourth under head coach Tony Vitello and the highest-selected player during the Vitello era. 

The Vols set a record with 10 players picked in the 2022 MLB Draft, including two first-rounders in outfielder Drew Gilbert, at No. 28 overall, and Jordan Beck, also picked by the Rockies at No. 38 overall.

Dollander, the junior right-hander, had a breakout 2022 season, going 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA over 79.0 innings pitched. He gave up just 21 earned runs and had 108 strikeouts to 13 walks. He allowed just 50 hits. This season he finished 7-6 with a 4.75 ERA over 89.0 innings, giving up 47 earned runs on 83 hits, with 120 strikeouts against 30 walks.

Here’s the analysis and draft grades for Dollander after Day 1 of the MLB Draft:

ESPN

ESPN.com: “If the Rockies can fix whatever was wrong with Dollander’s delivery this spring and bring out the 2022 version of the Tennessee ace, they’re getting a player who would have been off the board far before No. 9 tonight. Of course, the risk here is also greater, so this pick is a bet on Dollander and a bet on Colorado’s development department being able to bring out the best in him.”

Bleacher Report — Grade: A+

Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter: “Dollander was one of the leading candidates to go No. 1 overall heading into the 2023 season after he finished 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 79 innings during his sophomore season. However, inconsistent command led to a significant step backward in his results this spring, and he finished with a 4.75 ERA while his walk rate climbed from 4.2 to 7.8 percent. While the results may have suffered, his stuff was still elite, with a lively upper 90s fastball, a hard-biting slider and a quality curveball and changeup pairing all from a strong 6’2″, 200-pound frame. With a few minor tweaks, he could be the steal of this draft, though he is clearly a risk-reward gamble.”

Sporting News — Grade: B+ 

Sporting News’ Edward Sutelan: “This has the chance to be a huge win for the Rockies. There’s also some risk. Dollander looked like a 1-1 candidate after a dominant sophomore year at Tennessee, but his slider and control regressed in his junior season. If the Rockies can get him back to where he was, he’s exactly the type of pitcher that can succeed in Coors Field, with a high-velocity fastball and a slider that should survive the altitude. The Rockies have struggled with high-upside pitchers in the past, but they also did well with Jon Gray, a very comparable pick by arsenal and polish.”

DraftKings — Grade: B+

DraftKings’ Chris Landers: “Look, the only path forward for Colorado is to keep trying to develop homegrown pitching, and Dollander’s upside is as high as anyone’s — entering the 2023 season, the big righty was actually ahead of Skenes on most draft boards. He backslid badly this year, though, especially with his command, with a 4.75 ERA and 30 walks in 89 innings. Still, this is an electric arm, an explosive high-90s fastball with elite ride and a potential plus slider. He may never learn how to land it consistently, but again, when you call Coors Field home, you need to take bigger swings.”

CBS Sports — Grade: B

CBS Sports’ RJ Anderson: “Dollander entered the spring regarded as the best pitching prospect in the class. That evaluation didn’t hold up, as he struggled with his fastball command and a modified slider that featured half as much sweep. Scouts were still high on Dollander heading into the draft, however, thanks in part to a strong finish to his season. Whether or not the Rockies are the right organization to help maximize Dollander’s considerable arm talent is to be determined.”