Jon Rothstein explains why Tennessee is a 'dark horse candidate' to reach the Final Four

It’s hard to imagine a college basketball team coming off back-to-back Elite Eight seasons and still managing to sneak up should they flirt with the Final Four for a third straight year. But for Tennessee Basketball, Jon Rothstein believes that to be the case. 

The college basketball analyst this week listed the Vols as one of his five dark-horse candidates to reach the Final Four, alongside San Diego State, UCLA, Iowa State and Arkansas. 

“You might say Jon, how can you put Tennessee as a dark horse candidate for the Final Four when they’ve made it the Elite Eight each of the last two season?” Rothstein said.

“It’s real simple. How many teams are able to go to the most hallowed showcase in college basketball, the Final Four, and play during the first weekend in April, when you lose three players from the perimeter the year prior? That’s the undertaking that Tennessee is going to go through this year.”

Ja’Kobi Gillespie replaces Zakai Zeigler at point guard

Senior point guard Zakai Zeigler graduated. So did Chaz Lanier, Tennessee’s new single-season 3-point record holder. So did Jordan Gainey, one of the best sixth men in the country the last two seasons, and Jahmai Mashack, one of the best perimeter defenders in the game and a player Rothstein described as “the best glue guy in college basketball last season.” 

“But with that said, you still have Rick Barnes,” Rothstein said. “And you still have what he brings to the table.”

After striking gold in the NCAA Transfer Portal with Lanier last season and Dalton Knecht in 2023-24, Tennessee added one of the best point guards in the country out of the portal in Ja’Kobi Gillepsie. 

“(He) was the heartbeat of last season’s team at Maryland that went to the Sweet 16 and lost to Florida,” Rothstein said of Gillespie, “(and) will fit in seamlessly for Zakai Zeigler. And when I forecasted the SEC over the summer and I had my all-SEC preseason first team, Ja’Kobi Gillespie was on the team. You also, especially if Rick Barnes is your coach, want to be anchored by a sturdy presence in the post. Tennessee has that in Felix Okpara.”

“So the million dollar question comes then, are you going to get enough perimeter scoring to complement your all-conference point guard and your all-conference big man?”

5-star freshman Nate Ament is ‘the wild card’ for Tennessee

Enter Nate Ament, the five-star freshman, the consensus top-five prospect in the 2025 recruiting rankings and a possible top-five pick in next summer’s NBA Draft.

“That’s why Nate Ament is the wild card for Tennessee,” Rothstein said, “the five-star freshman. He does not need to obviously have the pressure on him where he is going to solely be responsible for whether or not he gets Tennessee to the Final Four for the first time in program history, but he’s going to have a big hand in it. 

“Physically, he’s got gifts from God. He’s long, he’s wiry, he looks like a prototypical wing that Norman Rockwell would have painted if you were looking at it. But he’s also going to adjust to what was the best conference in college basketball last year as a freshman. Keep the expectations at a reasonable level out of the gate.”

And get reliable production from him in March, when it matters most.

“If he’s a guy and he can regularly get Tennessee 14-15 points during the NCAA Tournament in 2026,” Rothstein said, “Tennessee again under Rick Barnes is going to be a candidate to go to the Final Four.”