KenPom's game-by-game projections for Tennessee Basketball this season
Tennessee Basketball will finish the 2024-25 season with a 22-8 overall record and an 11-7 record in SEC play, according to KenPom.com‘s season prediction for the Vols.
Tennessee, according to the KenPom game-by-game numbers, has greater than a 50% chance to win all but seven games on schedule this season, including wins at Louisville on November 9 and at Kentucky on February 11.
The only projected losses, going by the percentages, are at Illinois on December 14, at Florida on January 7, at Texas on January 11, at Auburn on January 25 and at Texas A&M on February 22.
The KenPom projections do not factor in Tennessee’s second game in the Baha Mar Championship in the Bahamas on November 22, against either St. John’s or Baylor. The Vols have a 67% chance to beat Virginia to open the tournament on November 21.
Up Next: No. 12 Tennessee vs. No. 17 Indiana, Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
Tennessee, ranked No. 12 in both the preseason Associated Press Top 25 and the Coaches Poll, is No. 13 in the preseason KenPom ratings.
The Vols host Indiana on Sunday (3 p.m. Eastern Time, SEC Network+) at Food City Center in a charity exhibition game, before opening the regular-season schedule on November 4 against Gardner-Webb.
| KenPom SEC Projections | Overall | SEC |
| Auburn | 21-8 | 13-5 |
| Alabama | 23-8 | 12-6 |
| Tennessee | 22-8 | 11-7 |
| Texas A&M | 20-11 | 11-7 |
| Texas | 20-10 | 10-8 |
| Arkansas | 20-11 | 10-8 |
| Florida | 19-11 | 10-8 |
| Mississippi State | 19-11 | 9-9 |
| Oklahoma | 18-11 | 8-10 |
| Kentucky | 18-13 | 8-10 |
| Ole Miss | 17-13 | 8-10 |
| LSU | 17-13 | 8-10 |
| Missouri | 19-12 | 8-10 |
| South Carolina | 16-14 | 7-11 |
| Georgia | 16-15 | 7-11 |
| Vanderbilt | 14-15 | 5-13 |
Tennessee’s toughest road game this season: At Auburn
Tennessee’s road game at Auburn is far and away the toughest on schedule, with KenPom giving the Vols just a 29% chance to win, with a projected final score of 75-69. Tennessee has a 47% chance to win at Illinois and is projected to lose 73-72.
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The road game at Florida is another one-point projection, with Tennessee given a 48% chance to win but losing 74-73. It’s a two-point game at Texas, with the Vols having a 44% chance to win but losing 71-69.
KenPom has Texas A&M beating Tennessee 72-69 in College Station and gives the Vols a 40% chance to win.
Tennessee is projected to start the season with eight straight wins and a 12-1 record through the first 13 games. The Vols are also projected to win 10 of their final 11 games on schedule.
The Vols are projected to go 7-4 over an 11-game stretch between December 14 (at Illinois) and January 25 (at Auburn).
Auburn, which is No. 3 overall in the preseason KenPom ratings, is predicted to win the SEC with a 13-5 record. Alabama is projected to finish second at 12-6. Tennessee and Texas A&M are next at 11-7 and three teams — Texas, Arkansas, and Florida — are projected to go 10-8. Kentucky is projected to finish 18-13 overall and 8-10 in SEC play.
