Skip to main content
Tennessee

Updating Tennessee's College Football Playoff chances using ESPN's Playoff Predictor

IMG_3593by: Grant Ramey18 hours agoGrantRamey
Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images | Tennessee running back DeSean Bishop (18) is grabbed by Alabama defensive back Keon Sabb (3) during a college football game at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Oct. 18, 2025.
Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images | Tennessee running back DeSean Bishop (18) is grabbed by Alabama defensive back Keon Sabb (3) during a college football game at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Oct. 18, 2025.

Tennessee’s path to the College Football Playoff is simple. After the 37-20 loss at Alabama Saturday night, the second loss of the season, the Vols have to win out over the final five games on the regular-season schedule, beginning this week at Kentucky, and hope to hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

ESPN’s Playoff Predictor currently gives Tennessee an 18% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, the 18th-best percentage after Week 8. 

The ESPN Playoff Predictor uses the three toughest games left on schedule, based on percentages from ESPN’s Football Power Index, to determine a team’s playoff chances at the end of the season. 

Tennessee’s playoff chances at 10-2: 90%

For Tennessee, those three games are Oklahoma at home, Florida on the road and Vanderbilt at home. The FPI gives the Vols a 65% chance to beat Oklahoma, a 61% chance to win at Florida and a 60% chance to beat Vanderbilt. 

Should the Vols win out, and not play in the SEC Championship Game, the Playoff Predictor gives Tennessee a 90% chance to make the playoffs, a 5% chance to get a first-round bye, a 58% chance to host in the first round and a 27% chance to go on the road in the first round. 

A loss at Florida drops the playoff chance to 11% while a loss to Oklahoma or Vanderbilt drops it to 8%. 

The ESPN percentages are based on 200,000 possible simulations of regular season outcomes. 

Tennessee is currently ranked No. 13 in ESPN’s Football Power Index. The FPI predicts the Vols to go 9-3 — 8.6-3.5 is the exact win-loss projection — with a 15.2% chance to win out.

Last season Tennessee made the first 12-team College Football Playoff bracket by going 10-2, getting the No. 9 seed and going to No. 8 Ohio State in the first round. The Vols lost at Arkansas in October and at Georgia in November and had wins over North Carolina State, Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama on their way to the postseason.

ESPN’s Playoff Predictor percentages

At the top of the list for the Playoff Predictor are Ohio State (96%), Indiana (94%), Alabama (90%), Texas A&M (84%), Georgia (82%) and Oregon (76%), ahead of BYU (52%), Ole Miss (49%), South Florida (46%), Miami (44%) Oklahoma (43%) and Texas Tech (42%).

Also ahead of the Vols are Georgia Tech (41%), Texas (39%), Vanderbilt (34%), Missouri (32%) and Notre Dame (30%).

Tennessee (5-2, 2-2 SEC) goes to Kentucky (2-4, 0-4) on Saturday night for a 7:45 Eastern Time start on SEC Network at Kroger Field. 

The Vols then have three of four games at home in November, hosting Oklahoma (November 1), New Mexico State (November 15) and Vanderbilt (November 29), along with a trip to Florida (November 22).