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Why ESPN's Heather Dinich moved Tennessee into updated College Football Playoff projection

IMG_3593by: Grant Ramey09/02/25GrantRamey
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ESPN’s Heather Dinich saw enough from Tennessee Football in the 45-26 win over Syracuse on Saturday to move the Vols into her updated College Football Playoff projections, with the Vols as a No. 8 seed and hosting No. 9 Notre Dame in the first round.

Dinich’s top four seeds are currently No. 1 LSU, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Miami and No. 4 Penn State.

The other first-round matchups were No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Oregon, No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Georgia and No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Florida State. 

Dinich has South Carolina at No. 11 and Clemson at No. 12 rounding out her current top 12, but Arizona State in the 12-team CFP bracket as the Big 12 champion and USF in as the American champ.

Tennessee is No. 8 in ESPN’s Football Power Index, which projects the Vols to go 9-3. The FPI gives Tennessee a 50.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff. 

ESPN’s Bill Connelly and Andrea Adelson also added Tennessee to their playoff projections. Adelson has Tennessee as the No. 7 seed while Connelly has the Vols as a No. 9 seed. 

‘The Vols made an early statement that they’ll be just fine without quarterback Nico Iamaleava’

Tennessee (1-0) got 247 yards passing and three touchdowns from quarterback Joey Aguilar in his first start, while the Vols also ran for 246 yards and got three total touchdowns from running backs DeSean Bishop, Peyton Lewis and Star Thomas. 

“New quarterback Joey Aguilar looked comfortable executing coach Josh Heupel’s offense against a respectable Syracuse team,” Dinich wrote, “notching a non-conference win that would earn respect in the committee meeting room. 

“This was a complete performance, evidenced by an offensive AND defensive touchdown in the first quarter. The Vols made an early statement that they’ll be just fine without quarterback Nico Iamaleava — at least against an average opponent.”

Dinich noted that Tennessee currently has the fourth-best playoff chances in the SEC, according to ESPN analytics, at 49.9%, behind on Georgia, Texas and Ole Miss. 

Up Next: Tennessee vs. ETSU, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET

Tennessee opens its home schedule against ETSU on Saturday (3:30 p.m. Eastern Time, ESPN+/SEC Network+) at Neyland Stadium, then hosts Georgia next week to start SEC play. 

ESPN’s Matchup Predictor has Georgia as the only game remaining on Tennessee’s schedule in which the Vols have less than a 50% chance to win. After Week 1 it now has Tennessee 52.7% chance to win at Alabama in October and a 51.3% chance to win at Florida in November. 

Last week, before the win over Syracuse, Alabama had a 68.4% chance to beat Tennessee and Florida had a 51.5% chance to beat the Vols, according to the ESPN numbers. 

Dinich correctly projected Tennessee’s playoff seeding last season in her final update before the bracket was set, giving the Vols the No. 9 seed and a trip to No. 8 Ohio State. 

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