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ESPN again bumps Tennessee from College Football Playoff projection after win

IMG_3593by: Grant Ramey10/12/25GrantRamey
Oct 11, 2025; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers running back Star Thomas (9) runs the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images
Oct 11, 2025; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers running back Star Thomas (9) runs the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

ESPN once again bumped Tennessee out of its updated College Football Playoff projection after the 34-31 win over Arkansas Saturday afternoon at Neyland Stadium. The Vols were also out of the 12-team bracket two weeks ago after the 41-34 overtime win at Mississippi State.

No. 11 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) goes to No. 6 Alabama (5-1, 3-0) Saturday night (7:30 p.m. Eastern Time, ABC) as the Vols continue to look to return to the College Football Playoff. 

Last week, after the Vols had an open date, ESPN had Tennessee as a No. 11 seed, going to No. 6 Alabama in the first round. 

Tennessee was ‘fortunate to beat a 2-4 Arkansas team at home’

This week, after having to rally and then hold on to beat Arkansas, ESPN’s Heather Dinich had Tennessee ranked No. 12 in her projected top 12 in the College Football Playoff rankings, but forced out of the bracket by South Florida, the projected American Conference champion who would get the No. 12 seed.

“The Vols were fortunate to beat a 2-4 Arkansas team at home — (two weeks) after they escaped Mississippi State with an overtime win,” Dinich wrote. “It hasn’t been pretty, and Tennessee is still searching for a statement win. 

“They’ve got an FCS win, a lopsided win against UAB and a decent nonconference win against a 3-3 Syracuse team that was more formidable with its starting quarterback in the lineup at the time they played them. That’s a detail the selection committee would consider.”

Tennessee trailed Arkansas 17-10 in the first half Saturday, then responded with 24 unanswered points to go up 34-17. The Razorbacks scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make it a one-possession game in the final two minutes.

“Tennessee hasn’t looked like an elite team,” Dinich wrote, “struggling to stop the run and racking up penalties. The Vols were tied at 17 at the half with a team that recently fired its head coach. 

“The committee has overlooked a lack of statement wins before, but typically that forgiveness happens when a contender is controlling games — not squeaking by unranked teams.”

ESPN’s top four seeds: Ohio State, Miami, Indiana, Texas A&M

ESPN’s current top four seeds, each with a bye into the second round, are No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Miami, No. 3 Indiana and No. 4 Texas A&M, the projected SEC champion. 

The first-round matchups are No. 12 USF at No. 5 Alabama, No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia and No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon. 

Tennessee dropped two spots to No. 13 in ESPN’s updated Football Power Index, which projects the Vols to go 9-3 with a 28.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

“If the playoff were today,” Dinich wrote, “the Vols would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — the American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12.”