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ESPN: Football Power Index 'overvaluing' Tennessee at No. 10 in updated rankings

IMG_3593by: Grant Ramey06/04/25GrantRamey
Tennessee Volunteers Head Coach Josh Heupel via Matt Ray/On3
Tennessee Volunteers Head Coach Josh Heupel via Matt Ray/On3

Tennessee is ranked No. 10 in ESPN’s first Football Power Index update for the 2025 season, but ESPN college football reporter Mark Schlabach isn’t buying into that kind of hype for the Vols. Not after what happened back in April.

“Given what transpired at Tennessee in the spring,” Schlabach wrote on Tuesday, labeling Tennessee as being overvalued by the FPI.

“I’m not sure the Volunteers are a top-25 team heading into the season, let alone one that should be ranked No. 10. I didn’t have the Volunteers ranked in my latest Way-Too-Early Top 25.”

Nico Iamaleava transferred to UCLA in April

ESPN dropped Tennessee from its Way-Too-Early Top 25 after losing starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava to the NCAA Transfer Portal during spring practice. 

The redshirt sophomore couldn’t agree on a new NIL deal to keep him with the Vols. He later landed at UCLA, while Bruins transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar left UCLA to take Iamaleava’s spot with the Vols.  

“I could see the Vols going one of two ways after quarterback Nico Iamaleava up and left for UCLA following an NIL dispute: The Vols are going to be better off with quarterback Joey Aguilar and his teammates will rally around him,” Schlabach wrote, “or Augilar’s leap from Appalachian State to the SEC is too high.”

Aguilar threw for 6,760 yards, with 56 touchdowns and 24 interceptions in two seasons at Appalachian State before transferring to UCLA in December. Iamaleava passed for 2,616 yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions last season while helping the Vols make the first 12-team College Football Playoff.  

ESPN’s FPI projects Tennessee to go 9-3 in 2025

The new FPI has a projects Tennessee to go 9-3 — 8.7-3.4 is the exact prediction — with an 0.8% chance to go undefeated. The Vols have a 5.6% chance to make it to the national championship game and a 2.3% chance to win the title. 

According to the FPI, the Vols have a 97.5% chance to win six or more games, a 4.2% to win the SEC and 38.5% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff.

The Vols finished at No. 9 in the 2024 Football Power Index after going 10-3 with a loss at Ohio State as a No. 9 seed in the first round of the College Football Playoff. 

Despite not being ranked in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early top 25, Tennessee is ranked 13th in ESPN’s updated SP+ projections, coming in at No. 7 on defense, No. 21 on special teams and No. 34 on offense in SP+ grades. 

“The Vols were already facing an uphill climb on offense, in my opinion,” Schlabach wrote, “after SEC leading rusher Dylan Sampson departed, along with three of the team’s top receivers.”

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