ESPN explains why Tennessee is one of 32 teams that can make the College Football Playoff

Tennessee is one of 32 teams that has a chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, according to ESPN. But Heather Dinich isn’t quite as high on the Vols as the analytics seem to be entering the 2025 season.

ESPN’s list, which ranked every team with at least a 10% chance to make the CFP, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, has Tennessee at No. 10.

“This is too high for the Vols, who return just 39% of their offense from last season’s playoff team (110th in the FBS),” Dinich wrote. “With former quarterback Nico Iamaleava at UCLA, and running back Dylan Sampson and the top three receivers from last season also gone, this team’s entire offensive identity is a question mark. 

“The season opener against Syracuse in Atlanta is hardly a gimme to start the nation’s 15th-most difficult schedule.”

Season Opener: Tennessee vs. Syracuse, August 30, Atlanta

ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts a win-loss record of 8.7-3.4 for Tennessee. The Vols have a 38.5% chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI, a 5.6% chance to play for the national championship and a 2.3% chance to win the national title.

The FPI gives Tennessee a 97.5% chance to win at least six games, a 4.2% chance to win the SEC and a 0.8% chance to go undefeated. 

Tennessee finished 10-3 last season after a 42-17 loss at Ohio State in the first round of the College Football Playoff. 

After opening the new season against Syracuse in Atlanta in the Aflac Kickoff Game on August 30 (Noon Eastern Time, ABC), the Vols host Georgia to start SEC play on September 13, go to Alabama on October 18 and play Oklahoma at home and Florida on the road in November. 

Dinich listed the road game at Alabama as the toughest game on schedule. 

“Yes, the Sept. 13 game against Georgia is probably a tougher opponent,” Dinich wrote, “but going to Tuscaloosa to face Bama could mean a second loss before November. And that’s with Oklahoma and a trip to the Swamp still looming. ESPN’s FPI gives Alabama a 71.9% chance to win.”

Tennessee’s key to playoff contention: Beating Georgia or Alabama

The key to staying in playoff contention late into the season will be avoiding an 0-2 record against Georgia and Alabama.

“This is the kind of schedule that helped Alabama finish as the committee’s top three-loss team last fall,” Dinich wrote. “The Tide had wins against Georgia, LSU and South Carolina, and that helped them stay in contention even with bad losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. 

“If Tennessee can do the same, and earn two or three statement wins, it might be able to earn some forgiveness in the committee room for multiple slip-ups elsewhere.”

What won’t be good enough, according to ESPN, is “unconvincing wins” against the lesser teams on Tennessee’s schedule.

“While there are plenty of opportunities for Tennessee to impress the committee against elite competition,” Dinich wrote, “the Vols need to look the part of a playoff team against the likes of Syracuse, East Tennessee State, UAB, Mississippi State and New Mexico State. 

“Losses to highly ranked teams can be forgiven, but if this new-look Tennessee offense doesn’t impress the committee on film against teams it should beat, the Vols could struggle to earn one of those at-large bids.”