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Tennessee drops in ESPN's Football Power Index, moves up in power rankings

IMG_3593by: Grant Ramey09/29/25GrantRamey
Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images | Tennessee linebacker Jeremiah Telander (22) defends a Mississippi State player during a college football game between Tennessee and Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss., on Sept. 27, 2025.
Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images | Tennessee linebacker Jeremiah Telander (22) defends a Mississippi State player during a college football game between Tennessee and Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss., on Sept. 27, 2025.

Tennessee dropped four spots to No. 13 in ESPN’s Football Power Index after the rally to win 41-34 in overtime against Mississippi State Saturday  at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville. Meanwhile, the Vols moved up on spot to No. 13 in ESPN’s new power rankings. 

“If the loose playoff goal for an SEC team is to reach 10-2,” ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote, “this comeback saved Tennessee’s bacon. The Vols still have a 40% chance of reaching 10-2 or better.”

ESPN’s FPI predicts Tennessee to go 9-3 — the exact win-loss projection is 8.9-3.2 — while giving the Vols a 99.8% chance to win six or more games and a 29.3% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Up Next: No. 15 Tennessee vs. Arkansas, October 11 

Tennessee (4-1, 1-1 SEC) is on a bye this week, before hosting Arkansas (2-3, 0-1) on October 11 at Neyland Stadium. The Vols will then go back on the road for two straight away games, at Alabama on October 18 and at Kentucky on October 25. 

Joey Aguilar on Saturday rallied Tennessee from a touchdown deficit late in the fourth quarter to force overtime, scoring on a 6-yard run with 1:55 left to cap a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that would eventually force overtime. 

DeSean Bishop ran 25 yards for a touchdown on the first play of overtime and Tennessee’s defense got four straight stops inside the 5-yard line to end the game, winning on Mississippi State’s incomplete pass to the end zone on fourth down. 

Bishop ran 11 times for 72 yards as the Vols went for 136 yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries as a team. Mike Matthews caught six passes for 118 yards and Chris Brazzell II stayed hot with six catches for 105 yards and a touchdown, his seventh of the season. 

“After catching 29 passes for 333 yards in his first year with Tennessee, Chris Brazzell II has already topped that mark, catching 31 balls for 531 yards and seven touchdowns in the first five games of 2025,” Connelly wrote. “Brazzell taking a nice step forward wasn’t necessarily surprising, but he has enjoyed a total star turn. 

“He had six catches for 105 yards and a touchdown against Mississippi State, and his fourth-down reception with five minutes left set up a late tying touchdown. The Vols eventually prevailed in overtime, 41-34.”

‘The Tennessee defense has not clicked thus far in 2025’

Brazzell also had a long touchdown catch called back on an offensive pass interference penalty. 

Mississippi State ran for 198 yards and three touchdowns on 57 carries as a team while quarterback Blake Shapen completed 18 of 29 passes for 189 yards, with a touchdown and an interception.

“Brazzell’s heroics — and those of quarterback Joey Aguilar, of course — have been a necessity because the Tennessee defense has not clicked thus far in 2025,” Connelly wrote. “The Vols allowed 16.1 points per game in 2024, but after Saturday they’re allowing 29.0 points per game in 2025. That’s also quite a surprise.”