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ESPN's computer rankings continue to be higher on Tennessee Football than poll voters

IMG_3593by: Grant Ramey08/16/25GrantRamey
Neyland Stadium, Tennessee Football | Tennessee Athletics
Neyland Stadium, Tennessee Football | Tennessee Athletics

ESPN’s computer rankings continue to be higher on Tennessee Football than voters in the Associated Press Top 25 or the Coaches Poll. ESPN’s final SP+ ranking update before the 2025 season has the Vols ranked No. 12 overall and the sixth-best SEC team.

Tennessee over the last two weeks has been ranked No. 18 in the preseason Coaches Poll and No. 24 in the preseason AP Top 25. 

The Vols have a 19.4 rating in the SP+ and are ranked No. 4 on defense (12.5), No. 33 on offense (31.9) and No. 21 on special teams (0.2). It gives Tennessee an average win total of 8.9 and has the Vols ranked 24th in strength of schedule.

ESPN’s Football Power Index is even higher on Tennessee, with the Vols at No. 8 overall with an FPI score of 16.6. The FPI has Tennessee with an average win-loss record of 9.0-3.1. It gives the Vols a 99.5% chance to win six or more games and a 43.0% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff.

Where Tennessee opponents are ranked in ESPN’s SP+

Ohio State is ranked No. 1 overall in the SP+, ahead of No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 Penn State and No. 5 Texas. The rest of the top ten is No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 7 Oregon, No. 8 Michigan, No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 10 Clemson. LSU is ranked just ahead of Tennessee at No. 11.

Tennessee opens the SEC schedule against Georgia on September 13 and goes to Alabama on October 18. 

As for other opponents on the Vols’ schedule, Oklahoma is No. 15 and Florida is ranked No. 16. Arkansas is No. 34, Kentucky is No. 44 and Vanderbilt is No. 54, one spot ahead of Syracuse at No. 55. Mississippi State is No. 66, UAB is No. 105 and New Mexico State is No. 125.

ESPN’s best bet for Tennessee this season: Over 8.5 wins

ESPN wrote earlier this week that the best bet for Tennessee entering the season is taking the over on the win total, which is set at 8.5. 

“The Volunteers’ defense is legit,” ESPN’s Pamela Maldonado wrote, while listing the best bet for each team ranked in the Associated Press Preseason Top 25, “one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. 

“With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional.”

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